The 2018 Academy Awards are set to be handed out on March 4 and as you ready to fill out your friends and office pools, might The Movie Mensch suggest you read this article first. After decades of predicting movie’s biggest night, we know a thing or two about who will win and why.
When it comes to the top award, we’d be hard pressed to remember a year with a tighter race in recent memory. The consensus is that it is between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. But, there is an outsider that seems to be charging towards the head of the pack that we believe will leap frog those two leaders and hear its name called on Sunday evening.
Sure, the acting categories are pretty much locks and have been since the beginning of Oscar season. Everyone knows that Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Allison Janney and Sam Rockwell are going to win in their respective categories. Another of the big awards, Best Director, is likely to go to Guillermo del Toro for The Shape Of Water. Is that guaranteed? Not exactly.
But the other 20-plus categories find many hard to call and that’s where this Oscar expert comes in. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for Oscars 2018. The envelope please…
Best Picture:
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
WINNER: I have a strong feeling that Get Out will be this year’s Moonlight. Last year, it was all about La La Land and Moonlight snuck in because it was on so high on many people’s ballots. See, with the preferential ballots it’s not black and white when it comes to a popular type vote scenario. There were people who did not care for La La Land and had it lower on their list of top pictures. Therefore, Moonlight was able to sneak itself into the top spot and win.
This year, with the battle between Three Billboards and Shape of Water, I believe we are seeing a comparable situation, only spread out over two films that not everyone is sold should be Best Picture. Each film has its detractors and as such, look for a film like Get Out, which is universally adored, to be high up on everyone’s ballots and therefore… be the winner. Plus, it’s a timely film that struck a chord universally and one that the Academy can be proud to hail as its best of the year when history judges voters’ choices in decades to come.
Get Out winning would be historic because it would be the first time a film with less than five nominations won Best Picture since Cavalcade did it in 1933.
Best Director:
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape Of Water
WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water… why? Because the helmer has won every single accolade during this awards season and there is no reason to think that any other name other than his will be called. Many like Nolan, but there is nothing that can stop the del Toro speeding train.
Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
WINNER: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards has also won every award along the yellow brick road towards Oscar night. Look for her to score her second golden statue. Plus, she always gives a good speech and one thing the Academy loves is someone who speaks their mind without getting too controversial and that sums up exactly what McDormand does. That is why Hollywood adores her. Look for that love fest to continue.
Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
WINNER: Gary Oldman wins Darkest Hour as the veteran actor finally wins his for Academy Award for his stunning turn as Winston Churchill. Everybody loves Oldman and if there isn’t a standing ovation once his name is called, I would be shocked.
Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
WINNER: Sam Rockwell, a veteran character actor who is also universally adored, will score his first Oscar for Three Billboards. There was no character with more of a deeper and rich arc on screen in all of 2017 and Rockwell handled it with grace, power and panache.
Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
WINNER: Although Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) gave a more rounded performance in the battle of the overbearing mothers, the victor will be Allison Janney for I, Tonya. The multiple Emmy winner will add Oscar to her resume on March 4
Original Screenplay:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
WINNER: Get Out’s writer, Jordan Peele made a seismic writer-director debut when his film premiered over a year ago. We still can’t shake its haunting power and the reason is that screenplay that the comedic actor penned. It is about as sensational a debut as can be achieved and as such, Peele is your winner.
Adapted Screenplay:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
WINNER: James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name. The word used more than any other to describe the film is beautiful. And yes, it is gorgeously shot and performed by a stellar cast, but the prose in Ivory’s script is what truly gives it its beauty. It is hard to believe that the man who gave us all those stellar Merchant-Ivory movies has never won. The Academy will rectify that gross omission with this year’s show.
Best Animated film:
Coco
The Breadwinner
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby
WINNER: Coco will give Disney and Pixar another top honor… no question. In fact, it’s starting to look like this category should just be renamed the Disney-Pixar show. The last non-Disney, Inc film to score a victory in this category was 2011’s Rango.
Original song nominees:
Remember Me (from Coco)
Mystery of Love (from Call Me By Your Name)
This Is Me (from The Greatest Showman)
Mighty River (from Mudbound)
Stand Up For Something (from Marshall)
WINNER: I may be biased, but I think it’s going to be This is Me from The Greatest Showman. It’s a way to reward the film that is still a top 10 box office hit, months after release. This award could go to Remember Me from Coco, and its winning Best Animated Feature could help the song too. But, in the end, I think the inclusiveness of This Is Me is going to win the day. Either way, a song with “Me” in the title will win, I’ll tell you that much. If you’re betting, bet on the magnificent masterpiece from Hugh Jackman’s passion project.
Best Documentary:
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
WINNER: Faces Places will win, but it would not be such an easy ride to victory if two favorites hadn’t been snubbed – An Inconvenient Sequel and Jane. If those two were in the race, we’d be having another discussion.
Best Documentary Short:
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
WINNER: Edith+Eddie, what with its subject matter about the abuse of the elderly at the center, it highlights one of our society’s dirty little secrets and gets a long overdue spotlight.
Best Foreign Language:
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
On Body and Soul (Hungary)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)
WINNER: Chile will score its first Oscar with A Fantastic Woman. With a transgender main character, it gives the Academy a chance to show its compassion for a segment of the population that is certainly having issues with the current administration and its banning of them from serving in the military.
Make-up and Hairstyling:
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
WINNER: Darkest Hour will win, and it is a deserved victory for the team that turned Oldman into the iconic British leader. Almost feel like Oldman’s performance and his hair and makeup come together. It’s hard to honor one without the other.
Film Editing:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards
WINNER: Baby Driver … always thought that from the moment I saw Edgar Wright’s masterpiece. Dunkirk has been the favorite, but thanks to that upset at the BAFTAs, I feel vindicated in my belief that your best edited movie of 2017 is the story of “Mozart in the go-cart.”
Visual Effects:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
WINNER: This comes down to Blade Runner 2049 and Apes and in the end, I feel that War for the Planet of the Apes is going to take the prize. The last two installments were nominated and failed to win. This would serve as tribute to the entire trilogy for the envelope pushing work that WETA did in bringing monkeys to life.
Best Original Score:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards
WINNER: Dunkirk. The second I heard the music in the trailer, what with that ticking clock, I knew it would win. It has almost as much to do with the searing suspense in Nolan’s film as every other aspect. I know some, well many, believe it’s going to be Alexander Desplat for Shape of Water. In fact, Gold Derby has Dunkirk in third. Don’t believe it… Nolan’s film will win in this category for Hans Zimmer’s stellar sonic suspense.
Live Action Short Film:
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
WINNER: DeKalb Elementary wins, sadly, because of its timely look at a school shooting in 2013. It is an opportunity for an acceptance speech that will be on the evening news nationwide in a category that barely gets that kind of notice.
Best Animated Short Film:
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
WINNER: Dear Basketball wins for one word… Kobe (Bryant). Well, and it’s a good movie.
Best Sound Mixing:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
WINNER: Baby Driver. Normally, Sound Mixing goes for a music-based movie and Sound Editing goes for a war-based movie. That will be the case again in 2018 as Baby Driver’s music as pacing the action movie magic will win the film’s second Oscar of the evening.
Best Sound Editing:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
WINNER: Dunkirk for the reasons listed above.
Best Costume Design:
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
WINNER: Phantom Thread – I mean, it’s a movie about a fashion designer! End. Of. Story!
Cinematography:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudboud
The Shape of Water
WINNER: Roger Deakins’ drought ends. After 14 Academy Awards nominations, he finally wins for Blade Runner 2049. Why? Have you seen the movie marvel?!
Production Design:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
WINNER: The Shape of Water, although I could see Blade Runner 2049 stealing it… but unlikely.