The Academy Awards seem to have gotten more and more predictable over the years. Sure, last year Spotlight shocked many who never expected it to win Best Picture. But, for those of us who analyze this for a living, it was not such a shock. It was a look deeper and you’ll see the writing on the wall kind of predictability. Yet this year, like many years in the past, seems to find an Oscar race that was over long before it began. Is that true and is there any hope for surprises come February 26?
BEST PICTURE
There is no world where La La Land does not win Best Picture.
So yes, in terms of the top honor of the evening, the race is over. There are some who believe that the SAG Awards win for Best Ensemble (their version of Best Picture) for Hidden Figures meant that now we suddenly have a race. The only thing is… La La Land was not even nominated! It is not an ensemble. The love letter to Hollywood is a two-person film and yes, those two leads are astounding, but two people an ensemble does not make.
Manchester by the Sea came out of last year’s Sundance as a favorite to win this year’s Best Picture, but we don’t see a canvas where that painting comes together in the least. There are no films on this list of Best Picture nominees that stand a chance against La La Land. After all, it won the Producers Guild award for top motion picture and that all but guarantees a victory come Oscar night.
Then, there’s the fact that the Academy loves to spotlight itself. A musical that harks back to classic Hollywood musicals? Check. A film that celebrates the greatness of the motion picture industry and all those who dream to become a part of it? Check. Forget about it. Oscar will go gaga for La La.
BEST ACTOR
If there is any mystery to the evening, it may come from this category. Thanks to Denzel Washington picking up his SAG Award for Best Actor for Fences, suddenly the race for Best Actor became a race once again. Until that point, it was all Casey Affleck, all the time. Well sorry, Denzel, we love you and loved you in Fences, but there is no way that Affleck does not take home the bald golden guy on Oscar night.
His performance was the best and in this case, they have to reward the actor who truly gave the best work. Affleck was stunning in Manchester by the Sea and delivered a gut punch of a turn that is the kind of role that Oscar voters can be proud to honor looking back at years from now. So, two-for-two, the favorite will win. So far, we’re quite predictable. Sorry, no mystery here.
BEST ACTRESS
The second Emma Stone finished singing Audition in La La Land; we thought the Academy should just give the actress her first Oscar. Much as Anne Hathaway did and Jennifer Hudson did before them, what with singing their way to Oscar gold, Stone did too. La La Land has 14 nominations, and when it comes to Best Actress, they are definitely going to put that one in the win column. Three-for-three, folks, this night is getting quite easy to see how it’s going to go.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Finally, do we have some mystery? Nope, don’t get too excited. If you look deeply into this category, who will win becomes pretty darn clear. It was nice that Michael Shannon got a nod for his powerful work in Nocturnal Animals and the same could be said for Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water and Dev Patel in Lion. But, sadly, none of those three stands a chance of hearing their name called on Oscar night. This “race” comes down to Manchester by the Sea breakout Lucas Hedges and Moonlight’s Mahershala Ali. And given that Moonlight probably will not win too much this year (even though it should), there is no way Ali does not win this category. Suspense?! In hindsight, I’d say no.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
What drives me nuts about this category is the woman who is an absolute lock to win, shouldn’t even be nominated in this category. But, that is neither here, nor there… for more on that, check out my thoughts on the Snubs and Surprises of Oscar nods.
Viola Davis will win for her work in Fences and there is no way she loses. Never in a million years. You can bet the farm, all the land and the entire surrounding area that Davis (who should be in the leading actress category) will win. No suspense here, folks.
BEST DIRECTOR
Think La La Land will win Best Picture and its director, Damien Chazelle, doesn’t score the Best Director trophy? Never! The shock value in this category is next to none. Now, what Denis Villeneuve did with Arrival, Mel Gibson did with Hacksaw Ridge, Barry Jenkins did with Moonlight and Kenneth Lonergan achieved with Manchester by the Sea is astounding. But none of those four men stands a snowball’s chance in hell to upset Chazelle. There are locks, and then there’s this category. Again, no suspense. Sense a trend here?
OTHER CATEGORIES
If you want suspense, you have to go much deeper into the nominations on Oscar nights. Our next edition of Oscar Watch will predict the winners in all the categories. But, for a sneak peek… here’s where the suspense lies in the following categories.
BEST SONG
La La Land should win, but for which song? The film has two tracks nominated, but… Disney could pull the upset here for its stunning How Far I’ll Go from Moana.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Can Kubo do it? Maybe Moana? Or will it be a zoo-ey night with Zootopia. This category has some serious suspense to it. (We think it should be Zootopia, more on that later.)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
This one will prove to be a tough one. The mind-blowing visuals of Doctor Strange battles it out against an instant classic in Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. Then, there’s the stunning work of Kubo and the Two Strings with its labor intensive animation effects that surely deserve some sort of recognition. But, what The Jungle Book achieved is nothing short of a movie miracle. Who. Will. Win?
CONCLUSION
As you can see, when it comes to the awards most of the world pays attention to — the top six including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress — even the most uninspired of Oscar prognosticators could see who wins. But, if you want a real mystery, go deep into the nomination fold and the “Who will win?” becomes a much more serious question.
Stay tuned… we will predict them all!