Now that the Golden Globes winners have been announced, our attention turns immediately to this Thursday. See, the nominations for the Academy Awards will be announced at an unbelievably early hour here in Los Angeles. One thing has to be clear: Voting for the Oscar nominations was over well before those Golden Globe victors were announced. But, will who won a golden statue from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association have any bearing on who wins an Academy Awards once general voting commences?
It’s an interesting question and one Oscar Watch has contemplated for years now.
In short, no – it has no bearing. But, in some years… it does have a bit of influence and we believe that 2016 is one of those years.
Why?
In several categories it has either solidified the potential Oscar winners or brought someone else into the forefront as an alternative to the perceived front runner.
For example, let’s start at the top, Best Picture. Many believe that The Revenant is the odds-on favorite to win the top honor at this year’s Academy Awards. Although we were not the biggest fan of this film (check out our The Revenant review), it is quite an accomplishment what director Alejandro Iñárritu did with his follow-up to Birdman. But, does that necessarily make it the best movie of the year?
In short, no… no it doesn’t. And although it is steamrolling through the beginning of awards season with its victory last night at the Golden Globes, there has to be some other film that can stand up to The Revenant and stop its perceived challenge-less march towards Oscar history.
In the most unlikely of ways, The Martian has risen to that challenge. See, as those of us who adore that Matt Damon film know, it is not a comedy. But, for some reason, the HFPA feels it was hilarious and placed in in the Best Picture, Musical or Comedy category. Clearly, of those nominated, it was the best film and as we all know, the Ridley Scott triumph won its Golden Globe.
Suddenly, The Revenant has a challenger and a formidable one for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Since there is no splitting of the categories for Best Picture at the Oscars, look for The Revenant to go toe-to-toe against The Martian and we have a feeling if an Oscar voter is looking at those two films, factors in the huge accomplishment that both films overcame to get made – thus equalizing their behind-the-scenes voting pull, the better of the two films will arise to take the title and that film is The Martian.
Now, we’re not necessarily saying that The Martian is the new front-runner in the race for Oscar. It’s just that Oscar needs some other film for another reason at this early moment to challenge Iñárritu. Why? Simply because he won last year for Best Director and Best Picture for Birdman. Oscar rarely gives someone their awards two years in a row (unless your name is Tom Hanks). Therefore someone else has to win and honestly, someone more deserved deserves to win. And now the option has been given, a Best Director in Ridley Scott and a Best Picture in The Martian. Oh yeah, and there’s that little movie that used to be called the front-runner, Spotlight.
Where else a Golden Globe victory has helped is in a few of the acting categories. Brie Larson is a virtual lock to win for her stunning turn in Room. Winning the Golden Globe doesn’t necessarily make her more of a lock… but it will just continue her victorious run that will surely continue through the rest of awards season leading to Oscar’s biggest night.
The other person is Sylvester Stallone. Judging by the standing ovation response of the crowd inside the Beverly Hilton to his victory for Best Supporting Actor for his role as Rocky Balboa in Creed and his heartwarming speech, we think he has emerged the odds-on favorite to win his first Oscar for acting and his first Oscar since scoring a couple for Rocky back in 1977.
Now, back to The Revenant for a moment before we go…
DiCaprio won for Best Actor, Drama at the Golden Globes and some think he’s an absolute lock to finally win his first Oscar for Best Actor. Will Matt Damon winning for Best Actor, Comedy for The Martian complicate things? Not necessarily, we’re just not so sold that “this is the year,” as they say, for DiCaprio to win. He probably deserved it for The Wolf of Wall Street. He may win in 2016, but let’s see who is nominated on the fourteenth and then we’ll discuss this very fascinating question further.
After all, Iñárritu and his picture won Oscars last year, but his lead actor did not — Michael Keaton. When it comes to the Oscars, anything can happen.