It’s the most wonderful time… of the year. Yup folks, it’s Oscar season and as we ready to hear those nominations read on January 22 at the crack of dawn by the Academy, The Movie Mensch makes his predictions about who should plan on being awake at the ungodly hour! We joke, it’s the hugest honor in the world for someone working in cinema and a moment no one who gets nominated will ever forget.
This is a wide-open contest with countless films vying for nods in the dozens of categories that inhabit Oscar night. It is especially difficult to predict this year due to the addition of literally thousands of new Academy members brought on by the desire to have more diversity—embodying everything that word means. Will more films that represent POC and women be represented? Yes, that much I can guarantee.
That doesn’t necessarily help us decide of Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk makes the cut joining some locks, such as Roma, A Star is Born, Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman. Also, there is the backlash to Green Book to take in consideration. Believe you-me, I do… yet I still think that Academy members will drop a slew of nods on the Peter Farrelly directed, based on a true story, flick.
Lots to cover, so let’s get to it. Ladies and gentlemen, my predictions for who will get an Academy Award nomination on Tuesday morning. Be sure to stay with The Movie Mensch and our weekly column, Oscar Watch, as I delve deeper into predictions for winners, thoughts on the process and anything else that comes up between now and showtime.
Best Picture
Roma
A Star is Born
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Green Book
The Favoruite
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice
If Beale Street Could Talk
The thought process: Roma, A Star is Born, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite are all locks to score a nomination for Best Picture. If Beale Street Could Talk will get in because it deserves it, but also because director Barry Jenkins is an Academy favorite. He won Best Picture for Moonlight just a few years ago. Vice will get a nod, if for no other reason than its politics. There is no love in the Academy for former Vice President Dick Cheney and the illegal war he helped start that cost the lives of 4,000 American heroes. Also, the Academy gave its writer-director—Adam McKay—an Oscar for Best Screenplay for his work on his first searing political indictment, The Big Short. Look for them to reward him for his latest.
Now, if there is a film that I think will make the cut but could see its name not here… it’s the tale of Freddie Mercury and Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody. With its win at the Golden Globes, its SAG nomination for Best Ensemble (its version of Best Picture) and its astounding box office success… I think BoRhap gets in.
Best Director
BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
A Star is Born, Bradley Cooper
The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos
Green Book, Peter Farrelly
The thought process: The only question I have for this category is whether the controversy surrounding Peter Farrelly and news that he exposed himself to Cameron Diaz during her audition for There’s Something About Mary will derail his own nomination. I believe the film will score nods in a bevy of other categories, but if there is one that could find a snub for Green Book, it’s for Farrelly for Best Director. Thing is, Diaz’s response to the news practically gave a pass to the director and it is a stunning thing he achieved with his latest film. I mean, this is the guy who gave us Mary, but also Dumb and Dumber and he delivers an Academy worthy film with Oscar worthy performances in a touching true story that is as timely as can be… yeah, Farrelly will hear his name when nods are revealed.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
The thought process: The first four on the list above are locks, in my book. The fifth spot is wide open. It could go to Nicole Kidman for Destroyer. First off, they love her. Secondly, she slayed it in that film with a powerful turn that is still reverberating through my conscious. Also, the Oscars adore it when a beautiful actress lets vanity go out the window for a role and she certainly did that with Destroyer. But there is no denying that Oscar also loves a first-time actress who turns in a performance that is for the ages in a movie that the Academy is rewarding in droves—which they will with Roma.
Therefore, that fifth slot will go to the film’s lead… Yalitza Aparicio for her take on a 70s maid living in Mexico City trying her best to make it through life with a love from a family that is not hers. But is, I mean, there is so much love in this picture!
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
The thought process: This is where all the separation of comedy and drama leading up to the Oscars truly starts to cost people. Malek has been cleaning up the awards for his stunning job as Queen’s lead singer. Also, Bale has been collecting his own fair share of awards for his role as Dick Cheney in Vice. But, Malek has been winning in the Musical or Comedy category and Bale the drama or vice versa, depending on which category a guild group, the Globes or critics’ group put the films in. So, those two will easily earn nods (now who wins… stay tuned for my prediction articles in the weeks following the nods being announced). Also, Mortensen is a lock for his out of this world turn in Green Book. Cooper too is a lock, but a mystery certainly arrives in this lead acting category as well for who will score that fifth slot. I think it will go to the talent announcement that was John David Washington in Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman. If he doesn’t carry that movie, it fails. And there is nothing in Lee’s latest that remotely fails.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
The thought process: The dynamic duo from The Favourite—Stone and Weisz—are locks. As is Adams for Vice, which will be her sixth nomination with no wins. After scoring some victories across awards season thus far, we must put King on this list (In fact, I firmly believe—even at this early date—she will be our winner) for her powerful, heartbreaking, inspiring, heart fluttering turn as the mother who defines motherhood in If Beale Street Could Talk. The fifth spot, again, is a mystery. Now, when First Man landed on the scene in October, it was thought to be an Oscar favorite. Since then, it has faded from the buzz fire except for its easy inclusion for the technical awards. There was one performance that was impossible to ignore and that was Foy as Armstrong’s wife. She will be your fifth nominee.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
The thought process: The first three on my list above are locks and deservedly so. The last two are firmly up in the air. Although Elliott is not actually in A Star is Born that much. Yet, that one shot of him tearing up as he drives in reverse after dropping his brother off at home after his time in rehab is the stuff of Oscar victory… so count him in. Plus, Hollywood loves him, and he has never been nominated! Yes… Sam Elliott has never been nominated! He’s your fourth spot.
The fifth, I believe, will go to Michael B. Jordan as the only acting representative to earn a nod from Black Panther. What he did in that film is extraordinary and deserves to be noticed. I’m going out on a limb here, but I have faith that the Academy, with its influx of new blood, will laud the antagonist from Ryan Coogler’s stunner with an Oscar nod.
Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
A Star is Born
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
The thought process: Four of the five films listed above will earn Best Picture nods and those are easy to put in the Best Screenplay category, regardless of whether it is Adapted or Original. The other one, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, is a stunning script. It is filled with language as rich as some of the subjects that McCarthy’s character tries to exploit. After all, Grant and McCarthy will each score nods for acting from this category and it is the prose they’re given that led them to this greatness.
Best Original Screenplay
Roma
The Favourite
Vice
Eighth Grade
Green Book
The thought process: Same idea as above, four Best Picture nominees will also score screenplay nods—Roma, The Favourite, Vice and Green Book. That fifth spot will be one that “sneaks” in but is so deserved. What Bo Burnham did with his debut writing-directing effort on Eighth Grade is so mesmerizing it has to be noticed. After all, how does a young man in his 20s so impeccably get the verbiage, landscape, attitude and life of a female in the titular grade in 2018? It’s the biggest of cinematic miracles and as such, Burnham will be nominated for Best Original Screenplay.
Best Cinematography
Roma
Black Panther
A Star is Born
The Favourite
First Man
The thought process: Even though First Man will likely not be a Best Picture nominee, Cinematography is exactly the type of category that will find honors for the story of Neil Armstrong. It looks gorgeous, that there is no denying. Roma director Cuaron served as his own cinematographer and delivered something that was electrically beautiful—even though it was black and white. Count him in for this category.
From the streets of Oakland to the lush landscape of Wakanda, Black Panther was richer due to its cinematographer and it too will be rewarded. The “look” of The Favourite is part of its charm. It is lush. It is colorful and it is visually unlike anything we’ve never seen before. Count. It. In.
Best Costume Design
The Favourite
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Queen of Scots
Mary Poppins Returns
The thought process: Capturing the stage flash of Mercury, Malek was aided by the priceless work of Bohemian Rhapsody’s costume designer. It is something truly special and easily one that will score a Best Costume Design nod. Same could be said for Black Panther for its varied, rich and divinely designed costumes. The period piece is one that always gets a lot of love in this category, and the best of those this year will find them being nominated—Mary Queen of Scots, The Favourite and of course, Mary Poppins Returns.
Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Roma
Vice
A Star is Born
The Favourite
The thought process: In terms of tone, I like to put The Favourite, Vice and BlacKkKlansman in the same boat, editing-wise. There’s a rhythm to those three films that are firmly due to the talent of the film’s editor. Without the top-notch work in this arena, each of those three flicks would not have the same feel, power or resonance. For a first time helmer, Bradley Cooper was aided astoundingly by his editor for A Star is Born. Then, there is Roma. Part of its beauty and breathtaking emotional power emerged from the editing room. Those are your five.
Best Makeup and Hair
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther
The thought process: Turning Bale in Cheney earns Vice its spot here (and Vice a likely victory).
Turning Malek into Freddie Mercury will serve the same for BoRhap,as it too will earn a nod. Lastly, joining those stellar costumes for Black Panther is the makeup and hair… fully completing a package that is gave us a powerful look to join a powerful storyline.
Best Production Design
The Favourite
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Roma
The thought process: Each of my predicted nominees, when witnessing these movies—you firmly know what you’re watching simply by the overall look and feel of the film. That’s the production designer’s job and the five I predict will earn nods, were easily the best of the year. What will win… now that is the true mystery.
Best Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
Isle of Dogs
BlacKkKlansman
The thought process: Just listen to the scores of all five of these films. Could they embody the tonality and emotional richness of each of their subjects more? No, no they could not. Like Best Production Design, Best Score will be one of the more competitive categories of the entire Oscar evening.
Best Song
Shallow, A Star is Born
All the Stars, Black Panther
I’ll Fight, RBG
Trip a Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns
The Place Where Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns
The thought process: In a year packed with great music at the cinema, narrowing down five songs has to be tough on the Academy members. For starters, Shallow and All the Stars have both got to be considered locks. The RBG documentary gave us an impeccably sonic representation of the iconic Supreme Court judge with I’ll Fight. When a doc nails it with its theme song, no easy task, the Academy adores awarding those folks with a nomination.
Since Mary Poppins Returns will likely not earn any of the “big” acting of picture nominations, look for it to earn not one—but two—Oscar nominations for Best Song. There are so many great tracks on this soundtrack, choosing two to award will be hard, but the standouts are The Place Where Lost Things Go and Trip a Little Light Fantastic.
Best Sound Editing
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
The thought process: The two sound categories were truly difficult to narrow down to five films because it was, frankly, a stellar year for musicals, war movies, action movies and thrillers—normally the genres that deliver for these categories. The five nominees will be the same for Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing. Who wins, will likely be different. For how John Krasinski tasked his sound team to bring alive silence in A Quiet Place, that team will certainly be nominated for both these categories. For First Man, the most triumphant aspect of the film was the sound. Sure, the acting, the story, the direction—it was all fantastic. But that sound was sensational. Black Panther, it solidly will represent the legion of action movies, thrillers and comic book movies because its sonic succulence was beyond compare this year. Lastly, the two biggest music movies—Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born—each will earn spots in these two categories for how they not only featured music but mixed it and edited it into the fabric of the entire film.
Best Sound Mixing
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The thought process: See above!
Best Visual Effects
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
First Man
Solo: A Star Wars Story
The thought process: This is the spot where the best comic book movies and sci-fi flicks get to hear their names called for Oscar nominations. In 2018, there were no better comic book flicks than Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War. Both pushed the envelope of visual effects and the cinematic science is better off because of their accomplishments. As such, each will earn nods for their stunning work.
What Steven Spielberg and his team achieved with Ready Player One is nothing short of a miracle. Not only did they achieve greatness all on their own with the world that was created on computers, but they also rocked us by capturing aspects of past pop culture triumphs, from Back to the Future to The Shining and even Jurassic Park. First Man took us to the Moon and put us firmly in that capsule that was shooting towards our Moon, book its date with Oscar. That fifth spot, that one was hard to predict. In the end, even though the film itself was divisive, look for Solo: A Star Wars Story to earn its ticket to the dance.
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
The thought process: Disney and Pixar delivered an animated one-two punch this year with Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet. Both were sequels to beloved properties, and each could not have had higher expectations with a fan base whose adoration for the original borderlines on the religious. Not only did each exceed expectations, but each were among the best of the year. Book their ticket to Oscar. The Japanese animation instant classic Mirai will also find its name called, as will Wes Anderson’s doggone delightful Isle of Dogs. For pet fans, animation fans or anyone who treasures a solid cinematic tale, Anderson’s stop-motion treasure is one for the ages. Then, there’s the picture that makes the other four look like amateur animation. Not really, but you get my point. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse not only is one of the best animated movies of the year, but one of the best movies of 2018. Period. It’s also going to be your runaway winner in this category. Count it.
Best Documentary
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Three Identical Strangers
Free Solo
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Minding the Gap
The thought process: Documentaries entertained while they enlightened in 2018 and each one of the five films that I’ve predicted will earn nominations for Best Documentary were timely, terrific and also a breath of fresh air in a genre of film that can often feel stale. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? showed us that the world has a gaping hole of caring for children that only Fred Rogers can fill. It made us miss him like never before. Three Identical Strangers may be the most riveting of docs you will see in recent memory. It’s an unbelievable true story that needs to be made into a narrative picture, much like Rogers’ tale is coming to theaters starring Tom Hanks.
Free Solo put us on the side of that mountain and did the impossible—made those of us afraid of heights actually considering doing something utterly insane like scaling the side of a giant mountain without support! Meanwhile, Minding the Gap serves as a study of modern friendship told through the backdrop of the rusting of American socio-economic ladder climbing opportunity that also is timely and terrific. Another great year for docs and who will win… stay tuned!
Best Foreign Film
Roma
Cold War
Shoplifters
Never Look Away
Capernaum
The thought process: This is a category that has so many vying for even making it this far. But it is true what they say—talent rises, and these five films were far and above the best of the year. One guess who will win, right?!