Not to toot our horn, but Oscar Watch has had a pretty darn good track record predicting the winners of the Academy Awards. In fact, our percentage of categories picked correct has been between 75 and 85-percent. The 2016 Oscars are upon us (they will be handed out February 28) and it’s time for us to unveil our predictions for who will win in each of the 24 categories.
Got your Oscar pool ready? Let’s fill it out!
Best Adapted Screenplay
- The Big Short (Adam McKay, Charles Randolph)
- Brooklyn (Nick Hornby)
- Carol (Phyllis Nagy)
- The Martian (Drew Goddard)
- Room (Emma Donoghue)
Winner: The Big Short.
Why: Michael Lewis’ book was dense and complex. What Adam McKay and Charles Randolph did in bringing it to the big screen is nothing short of a miracle.
Best Original Screenplay
- Bridge of Spies (Matthew Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
- Ex Machina (Alex Garland)
- Inside Out (Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve)
- Spotlight (Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer)
- Straight Outta Compton (Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus)
Winner:Spotlight
Why: The year-long investigation into the pedophile abuses of priests from the Catholic Church is boiled down brilliantly into a two-hour drama. It is riveting, compelling and wildly emotional. Easy choice.
Best Cinematography
- Carol (Edward Lachman)
- The Hateful Eight (Robert Richardson)
- Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)
- The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
- Sicario (Roger Deakins)
Winner: The Revenant
Why: Lubezki will win his third cinematography Oscar for what was the best part of the Leonardo DiCaprio starring flick. Sadly, legend Deakins will go home empty handed for the umpteenth time!
Best Costume Design
- Carol (Sandy Powell)
- Cinderella (Sandy Powell) – won three previous times
- The Danish Girl (Paco Delgado)
- Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)
- The Revenant (Jacqueline West)
Winner: Cinderella
Why: Did you see that blue dress? It was one of the most talked about things in the movie!
Best Film Editing
- The Big Short (Hank Corwin)
- Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)
- The Revenant (Stephen Mirrione)
- Spotlight (Tom McArdle)
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey)
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Why: Roger Miller’s film, on top of everything else it is, is a lesson in how to cut together a masterpiece. You can’t look away. And that’s because of exactly how it was edited.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Mad Max: Fury Road (Lesley Vanderwalt, Damian Martin, Elka Wardega)
- The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (Love Larson and Eva von Bahr)
- The Revenant (Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini)
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Why: When witnessing Mad Max: Fury Road, it isn’t necessary the type of film that screams “best makeup and hairstyling.” Yet, if you look closely at it, you discover that another spoke in the movie’s mastery wheel is its makeup and hairstyling. It’s rich. It’s jaw-dropping and it’s simply the best.
Best Original Score
- Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)
- Carol (Carter Burwell)
- The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
- Sicario (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)
Winner: Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight
Why: Morricone is one of the artists that helped define the artform that is the modern western. His soundtracks for Spaghetti westerns are a standard and have influenced and inspired future composers in a legion of other genres. Awarding him this Oscar is a no-brainer. What he did with Tarantino’s film is pure movie music mastery. Look for his name to be called and a standing ovation to ensue.
Best Original Song
- Earned It from Fifty Shades of Grey
- Til It Happens To You from The Hunting Ground
- Manta Ray from Racing Extinction
- Writing’s On the Wall from Spectre
- Simple Song #3 from Youth
Winner: Til It Happens to You
Why: Lady Gaga’s powerful track echoes the emotion, power and anger that permeates the documentary that chronicles an epidemic of rape on the nation’s campuses. The last time a Bond song was nominated, the Adele belted track, Skyfall, scored the franchise’s first victory in this category. There is no way that Sam Smith’s title track from this year’s Bond flick will beat Gaga’s anthem.
Best Production Design
- Bridge of Spies (Adam Stockhausen; Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich)
- The Danish Girl (Eve Stewart; Michael Standish)
- Mad Max: Fury Road (Colin Gibson; Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson)
- The Martian (Arthur Max; Celia Bobak, Zoltan Horvath)
- The Revenant (Jack Fisk; Hamish Purdy)
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Why: Have you seen the world that Miller’s team crafted in the post-apocalyptic landscape of Max’s mad, mad world? It is a stunning achievement of the highest order, particularly the various tonal shifts that each locale of the film demanded.
Best Sound Editing
- Mad Max: Fury Road (Mark Mangini and David White)
- The Martian (Oliver Tarney)
- The Revenant (Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender)
- Sicario (Alan Robert Murray)
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Matthew Wood and David Accord)
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Why: This is Mad Max: Fury Road’s night to sweep the technical awards. It’s stunning achievement on that side of the camera will be rewarded with a bevy of golden statues. Next time you’re watching this fine film, pop on the headphones and give a close “look” at how incredible the sound editing (and mixing for that matter) is — those sound effects are spectacular.
Best Sound Mixing
- Bridge of Spies (Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin)
- Mad Max: Fury Road (Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo)
- The Martian (Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth)
- The Revenant (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek)
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson)
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Why: See Sound Editing!
Best Visual Effects
- Ex Machina (Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett)
- Mad Max: Fury Road (Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams)
- The Martian (Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner)
- The Revenant (Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer)
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould)
Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Why: First, it’s Star Wars. Second, it will be the only technical award that Mad Max: Fury Road doesn’t win because it’s special effects are just that much more special. Third, after a movie that is universally adored by critics and audiences make it the number one highest grossing movie of all-time in the U.S. — the Academy has to award it something. This award takes care of all of that.
Best Animated Feature Film
- Anomalisa (Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran)
- Boy and the World (Ale Abreu)
- Inside Out (Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera)
- Shaun the Sheep Movie (Mark Burton and Richard Starzak)
- When Marnie Was There (Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura)
Winner: Inside Out
Why: The moment Pixar’s gem landed on screens, anyone who saw it immediately left the theater and thought, “We have just witnessed this year’s Best Animated Feature winner.” There is no way it doesn’t win. In fact, there is no more sure of a lock across the entire evening.
Best Foreign Language Film
- Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia; Ciro Guerra)
- A War (Denmark; Tobias Lindholm)
- Mustang (France; Deniz Gamze Ergüven)
- Son of Saul (Hungary; László Nemes)
- Theeb (Jordan; Naji Abu Nowar)
Winner: Son of Saul
Why: The Academy adores awarding Holocaust-set movies. Sure, they’ve pulled back a bit in recent years and been less predictable when it comes to that setting. But, there is something so powerful, riveting and emotionally compelling that there is little doubt that Son of Saul has winner written all over it. Note: It will be Hungary’s first Oscar… ever!
Best Documentary Feature
- Amy (Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees)
- Cartel Land (Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin)
- The Look of Silence (Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen)
- What Happened, Miss Simone? (Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes)
- Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor)
Winner: Amy
Why: Amy is tragic and sticks with you ions after the film has finished. It is exactly the type of doc that Oscar loves to award. It’s something they can hold up years from now and be proud of. Look for Amy Winehouse’s family to take the stage and much, much emotion to ensue.
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
- Body Team 12 (David Darg and Bryn Mooser)
- Chau, Beyond the Lines (Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck)
- Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (Adam Benzine)
- A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy)
- Last Day of Freedom (Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman)
Winner: Body Team 12
Why: The film chronicles the medical team charged with removing dead bodies that perished from the latest Ebola outbreak in Africa. Who goes into an area that permeates death? Much less an area where a killer like Ebola has killed simply from being around it? Oscar will find this powerful film irresistible.
Best Short Film (Animated)
- Bear Story (Historia de un Oso) (Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala) Chile
- Prologue (Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton)
- Sanjay’s Super Team (Sanjay Patel and Nicole Drindle)
- We Can’t Live Without Cosmos (Konstantin Bronzit)
- World of Tomorrow (Don Hertzfeldt)
Winner: Bear Story
Why: Bear Story and its timeless tale of how oppression can destroy a family, told from the eyes of a young bear whose grandfather has been taken away by the authorities will surely catch Oscar’s eye. It’s animation is stunning. It’s message is universal.
Best Short FIlm (Live Action)
- Ave Maria (Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont)
- Day One (Henry Hughes)
- Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut) (Patrick Vollrath)
- Shok (Jamie Donoughue) Kosovo war from Jamie Donoughue
- Stutterer (Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage)
Winner: Shok
Why: The Kosovo war has not found itself into too many films that Academy voters get to see. What Shok achieved with its telling of the perils of that conflict through the eyes of two young boys is exquisite.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
- Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Why: Check out our Oscar Watch: Who Will Win Best Supporting Actor for a full-on explanation!
Best Supporting Actresses
- Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Why: Check out our Oscar Watch: Who Will Win Best Supporting Actress for a full-on explanation!
Best Actor
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Eddei Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Why: Check out our Oscar Watch: Who Will Win Best Actor for a full-on explanation!
Best Actress
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
- Brie Larson, Room
Winner: Brie Larson, Room
Why: Check out our Oscar Watch: Who Will Win Best Actress for a full-on explanation!
Best Director
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- Lenny Abrahamson, Room
- Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Winner: Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant
Why: Check out our Oscar Watch: Who Will Win Best Director for a full-on explanation!
Best Picture
- The Revenant
- The Big Short
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Spotlight
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- The Martian
- Room
Winner: The Big Short
Why: Check out our Oscar Watch: Who Will Win Best Picture for a full-on explanation!