This Oscar Watch column comes with a very big caveat. The Golden Globes mean nothing to those of us charged with predicting the Academy Awards. After all, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are members of the media and not a voting block of any kind. But they do serve the most minute of purposes. That is giving a forum to those comedies or musicals out there that spend the entire awards season being eclipsed by those weighty dramas.
For example, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won Best Picture, Musical or Comedy and 1917 won Best Picture, Drama at the 2020 Golden Globes. This particular year is fascinating. Given that Quentin Tarantino’s flick is hardly a standard comedy (it does have some well-earned laughs), but it’s a fantasy/fairy tale based around the Manson murders for goodness sakes! Only at the Golden Globes can we get a sense of which two films are going to “claim” momentum based on their Sunday night victories at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.
In past years, it was more pronounced. For example, in 2009, The Hangover won Best Picture, Comedy or Musical and we all know that there was no chance in hell that the Oscars were going to bestow a Best Picture nod on the Todd Phillips comedy. Then again, in 2011 The Artist won Best Picture, Comedy or Musical and then would go on to win Best Picture at that year’s Oscars. Furthering that point is last year’s ceremony where Green Book scored a win for Best Picture, Comedy or Musical, and then would go on to win Best Picture. There are a few laughs in Green Book, but I would hardly call it a comedy. The studio behind the flick was smart. It saw an opportunity to win the big Golden Globe award for comedy or musical and then heading forward, it could at least paint itself a favorite for Best Picture (something it would eventually win).
So, what does that mean for The Movie Mensch’s choice for Best Picture of 2019, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood? Tarantino’s ninth film arrives in the running for Best Picture on its own merits—that have absolutely nothing to do with the Golden Globes and its three wins … it also won Best Supporting Actor for Brad Pitt and Best Screenplay for Tarantino. Why, in my opinion, the Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio starring flick is an Oscar front-runner has everything to do with its director, its subject matter, its geographic locale, its pitch perfect performances and the flick’s stellar script.
Now, with 1917, there is a lot going for that film as well when it comes to its chances for a Best Picture victory. It is a given that the Sam Mendes directed film will earn a nod for Best Picture. The World War I set film ticks a slew of boxes that Academy members adore that puts it in the running for the industry’s highest honor. It’s a war movie that pushes the envelope in a way that hasn’t happened since Saving Private Ryan. It’s a technical marvel. What could have been a cinematic gimmick, the single shot means of storytelling, with Mendes and DP Roger Deakins handling the artistry, comes off as nothing short of brilliance incarnate. Although the two lead actors—Dean-Charles Chapman and George MacKay—are phenomenal, there is little chance either will hear their name called for acting nominations. Its merit for winning Best Picture lies solely in its powerful narrative meets its pristine, thrill a minute modus operandi.
Sure, there are a lot of other flicks from 2019 that will be in the running for cinema’s top honor. Most notably there will be two from Netflix: The Irishman and Marriage Story and then there’s the South Korean stunner Parasite. There is little mystery surrounding whether Parasite will earn a Best Foreign Language nomination and a Best Picture nod. It will. In fact, I would bet the farm right now that the Bong Joon Ho written and directed instant classic will win the Best Foreign Language Oscar and has a decent chance of winning Best Picture. But, like Roma last year … look for the outstanding foreign film to win its innate category and not make the leap to best all around film.
So yes, the Golden Globes (at this point) have set up a showdown between 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. They are on a collision course that has honestly nothing to do with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and their cute little awards show. The Mendes v. Tarantino narrative that’s emerged is one of unique coincidence. Where we stand right now, in the days and hours before nominations are even announced in the wee hours of January 13, is a love letter to Hollywood (Oscar loves those) and a World War movie (Oscar loves those) going tête-à-tête for the highest honor in the biz.
It’s just so happens that they won their respective categories at the Golden Globes. After all, an institution with only 90 members should (and doesn’t) change the needle on where flicks stand in the run up to Oscar night.