It’s Oscar week, people! For the first time in recent memory, it’s a vastly wide-open field for Best Picture and a majority of the other categories as well. There are a few films that we know won’t win Hollywood’s highest honor, but there are also a solid handful that could find themselves scoring the bald golden guy.
There are 24 categories and there are only a few that are locks, in my opinion, and the rest find some real competition. The 2019 Oscars are going to be one for the books, and it isn’t just because there will be no host for the first time in decades. It is because there are many, many categories where everyone in that field should have a speech ready because their moniker could be the one called up to the Dolby Theatre stage on Sunday, February 24 (airing on ABC).
It has been a fascinating lead-up to the award show, what with the Best Popular Movie category being announced and then cancelled. Then, it was revealed that there would only be three Best Original Songs performed live. Pressure mounted, so the Academy relented and now all five tracks will be heard by the hundreds of millions who tune in across the globe. Producers and ABC decided to trim the show and had three categories cut from the broadcast. That was met with enormous rage by the filmmaking community and—again—the Academy relented and now all 24 categories will be aired live. So… who will win in each of these two-dozen categories?
Want to win your Oscar Pool—let’s get at it!
BEST PICTURE:
- Black Panther
- BlacKkKlansman
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
- Vice
Who will win? BlacKkKlansman
Why? This is, in many ways, a three-way race. I believe it will come down to Roma, Green Book, Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman. Due to the preferential balloting system that the Academy utilizes now, one could see a film that many voters have high on their list, but not necessarily number one, may get enough high votes that it leapfrogs to victory. Some have felt that is exactly how we got victories for Spotlight and Moonlight. In that scenario, I could easily see Black Panther or BlacKkKlansman winning. Now, let’s take a step back for a moment.
The favorite, right now odds-wise, is Roma, with Green Book second and BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite tied for third. There is a built-in issue on two fronts that could prevent Roma from winning Best Picture. A Netflix movie, or streaming service of any kind, has never won the film world’s highest honor. There is an undeniable bias against a film that was mostly seen by folks at home. After all, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences exists for the sole purpose—strip everything else away—to encourage the experiencing of the art form of film on the big screen. The second element that would keep the Alfonso Cuarón flick from taking top honors at Sunday’s event is that it is also nominated for Best Foreign Language Film—and as you will read later—will easily win that honor. No film in Oscar history has won Best Picture and Best Foreign Film. It’s going to win Best Cinematography and Best Director as well and Oscar voters could easily feel that that is enough. With that logic, Green Book slips in and wins.
But… Green Book has issues. I think it is a delightful film and was one of my favorites of the year. It does feel a bit like Driving Miss Daisy and history has not been kind to the Academy’s 1990 choice of awarding that film Oscar gold as opposed to a film that year that many felt deserved the top honor, Spike Lee’s Do the Right Thing. Does the Academy essentially do the same thing again and award Green Book when Lee’s BlacKkKlansman easily warrants the love? It’s possible. Then, there are sub-stories such as star Viggo Mortensen’s using the “N” word during the press hype during the film’s release and the screenwriter’s questionable Tweets that will absolutely keep him from winning Best Original Screenplay honors. Does this all mean that BlacKkKlansman sneaks in and takes the prize? Wait one minute.
Let’s not discount how Black Panther could actually be the movie with Black in the title to hear its name called on that Dolby Theatre stage. It has its own issues as well. 1) It’s a superhero movie and history has already been made with its seven nominations. 2) It’s from Marvel, which is owned by Disney and with Disney’s purchase of 20th Century Fox all but done, there is a razor-sharp backlash against the idea of giving an Oscar to the studio that already is owning the box office and will only own it more so once that Fox deal is completed. It’s not Black Panther’s fault, but there are many of these new Academy members that don’t like the monopoly-ish feel that Disney is giving off in the last ten years or so. When it comes to the older voters, a few have admitted in some interviews, anonymously, that they haven’t even seen Black Panther.
So where does that leave us? Confused! But, for this longtime—decades long—predictor of all things Oscar, I see into my crystal ball and I know who will win. On the ScreenPicks movie podcast I know I predicted Green Book. But for me in the last three days, I have had a change of heart. My number one movie of 2018 is going to be the winner of Best Picture and that is BlacKkKlansman. Toss in the fact that I feel the flick will take the Best Editing category and that adds major weight to this theory.
LEAD ACTOR:
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Who will win? Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody.
Why? This is a case of momentum changing and as we head into the week of the Oscars, it is all about the man who achieved uncanny greatness capturing the essence, stage presence and power of Freddie Mercury. Malek and Bale were thought to be the two duking it out for the Best Actor trophy. Bale won the Golden Globe for Drama, and Malek won the Globe for Best Comedy or Musical. Malek won the SAG and the BAFTA award. Bale won the Critics Choice Award. Now that we are days away, the thrust has been firmly for Malek these last few weeks, so it’s his award to lose. Also, with the announcement that Queen and Adam Lambert will be performing live at the Oscars, look for more Queen love to fall on Malek.
LEAD ACTRESS:
- Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Olivia Colman, The Favourite
- Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who will win? Glenn Close for The Wife.
Why? This is one of those rare categories this year where we have a lock. It’s Close’s time. This is one of those career awards (and she deserves it because the performance was so powerful) where a performer who has never won before. Everyone loves her. She has a ton of previous nominations (Close has seven without a victory) and will finally gets her due. Plus, she has given some great acceptance speeches over this awards season and that only helps her cause to move us with her thanks.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
- Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
- Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
Who will win? Mahershala Ali for Green Book.
Why? OK, I know I said there aren’t a lot of locks and here we have two in a row… but pay attention, it is not that frequent this year. Ali has been wining this award in every possible award show along the way this season. Toss in the fact that he completely deserves it. He gave the best performance of any actor in this category and Green Book doesn’t have the weight it has if not for Ali. He won for Moonlight in 2017 in this same category. Look for him to make it two in three years.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Marina de Tavira, Roma
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone, The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Who will win? Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk.
Why? For me, King won this award as soon as she delivered that breathtaking monologue moment in the film where she goes off on the woman who will also be called grandmother with this surprise pregnancy that lies at the heart of Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight follow-up. King also delivered some incredible moments when her character went to Miami to meet with the woman who could free her future son-in-law. The Favourite actresses are both deserving of this honor but will cancel each other out. Adams is on her sixth nomination with no wins, but she was in Vice so little—I just don’t see her taking this one. Perhaps she’ll get a “career” Oscar for a role soon, a la Close. Then there’s de Tavira in Roma. Her award is honestly just getting recognized by the Academy with a nomination.
DIRECTOR:
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
- Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
- Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
- Adam McKay, Vice
Who will win? Alfonso Cuarón for Roma.
Why? Cuarón has been taking a lot of the award season trophies for this category. I don’t see how he doesn’t win the golden goose for his stunning work on his deeply personal and overtly beautiful black and white gem, Roma. Personally, I want Lee to win. Love Cuarón, but he already has one. Lee has never won. In fact, he has never even been nominated in this category… until now. This category will come down to Lee and Cuarón. Since Cuarón scored the DGA title, look for him to win this one as well. Spike will win an Oscar tonight, just wait…
ANIMATED FEATURE:
- Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Mirai
- Ralph Breaks the Internet
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who will win? Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Why? Have you seen it? Not only is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse the best animated movie of the 2018, it is easily one of the best movies of any kind that came out in 2018. This will be the first time since 2012’s Rango that a non-Disney owned outlet has won this award.
ANIMATED SHORT:
- Animal Behaviour
- Bao
- Late Afternoon
- One Small Step
- Weekends
Who will win? Bao
Why? The Asian themed animated short aired before Incredibles 2 and therefore it is the animated short seen by the most people. That is not the only reason it will win this award. Bao scores its Oscar because it’s the freshest, most intimate and emotionally charged animated shorts on this list. It truly is a stunning work, from how its animated to its subject matter. Try not tearing up watching this gem. I dare you.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Who will win? BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Why? This is a tough category to predict. Each adapted screenplay could easily walk away with the Oscar. What Jenkins did with the source material for If Beale Street Could Talk is a movie miracle. The Coen brothers always write masterful scripts. Holofcener and Whitty won this award at the WGA, so that puts them right up near the top. What Cooper and company did with the four-time remake that is A Star is Born is absolutely amazing. But there is something about the screenplay for BlacKkKlansman that is timely, emotionally explosive and richly diverse in how it tells its story. Lee will finally earn himself his first Oscar for his work and look for the house to stand to their feet and give him minutes of standing ovation love.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
- The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
- First Reformed, Paul Schrader
- Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
- Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
- Vice, Adam McKay
Who will win? The Favourite from Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Why? I want Schrader to win this category. The man who has penned so many classic screenplays (Taxi Driver, Raging Bull) has never won. I just don’t feel that “career award” swell that has permeated award season for Close, for example. After all the controversy that swirls around the folks who gave us Green Book, there is NO WAY that film wins. Cuarón is already going to win at least two awards this night, so it’s not happening for him in this category. McKay won this award for his work on The Big Short and what he did with Vice is extraordinary. But there is something innately epic about what the screenwriters of The Favourite gave us that will put them over the top and find themselves now known as Oscar winners.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
- Cold War
- The Favourite
- Never Look Away
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
Who will win? Cuarón scores his second Oscar of the evening in this category.
Why? He does something utterly amazing by making a film that is black and white feel more colorful, tonally, than any other movie this year. It is a gorgeous film that is glorious in every sense of the visual. I have never seen a B&W flick that gave off such bountiful beauty in my life.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
- Free Solo
- Hale County This Morning
- Minding the Gap
- Of Fathers and Sons
- RBG
Who will win? This is a tough one! In the end, got to go with RGB.
Why? Both RGB and Free Solo have a whole lot of love going for it, as does Minding the Gap. In my opinion, the Best Documentary of the year isn’t even nominated (Won’t You Be My Neighbor?), so that should clear the path for a movie that will allow the famously politically liberal Academy voting body to honor a Supreme Court justice that has blazed a trail in a myriad of ways. With her recent health scare and the hope that she remains on the court until a Democrat can occupy the White House, there is going to be a whole lot of Oscar voters ticking off RGB and it will add up to a triumphant moment during the broadcast. Free Solo could pull a win because of its stunning accomplishment, but I just don’t see it battling back against the swell of support for the little justice that could.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
- Black Sheep
- End Game
- Lifeboat
- A Night at the Garden
- Period. End of Sentence
Who will win? These doc categories are truly tough this year to predict. I give the award to Black Sheep.
Why? With racial issues dominating headlines in our country (sadly, still), Oscar voters are going to want to bring a spotlight to the issues surrounding race that lie at the heart of Black Sheep. If there is a film that could unseat that title it is Period. End of Sentence with its female empowerment theme that always resonates with Oscar voters. Also, A Night at the Garden could pull an upset. One thing, traditionally, that Oscar loves to do is award docs who focus on Nazis and Jews and—again—to see white supremacy making headlines in 2018, the film that shows how the American Nazi party did its thing in broad daylight back in the 1930s should shock us all. In the end, I’m ticking the box for Black Sheep.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
- Detainment
- Fauve
- Marguerite
- Mother
- Skin
Who will win? Marguerite
Why? This category will come down to Marguerite and Skin. The former wins—it’s just something I feel in my gut on this one.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
- Capernaum (Lebanon)
- Cold War (Poland)
- Never Look Away (Germany)
- Roma (Mexico)
- Shoplifters (Japan)
Who will win? Roma
Why? Is there any (real) question who will win this category? Please! The only mystery with this category is could—for the first time in Oscar history—a film win both Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film. I say no, which is one reason why I don’t have Roma winning Best Picture.
FILM EDITING:
- BlacKkKlansman
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- Green Book
- The Favourite
- Vice
Who will win? BlacKkKlansman
Why? BlacKkKlansman bristled with such vivacious life, thanks to its editing team. That is why it scores the highest honor in the business. A close second, for me, is Vice.
SOUND EDITING:
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- First Man
- A Quiet Place
- Roma
Who will win? First Man
Why? This category, more often than not, goes to a sci-fi flick or a war movie with lots of battles, noise, etc. That’s why it is easy for me to say that First Man will score the victory for Sound Editing. With all the problems that that film had, sound was not one of them. It was extraordinary what was achieved in the sonic editing booth. Incredible!
SOUND MIXING:
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- First Man
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
Who will win? Bohemian Rhapsody
Why? Normally a music movie, more often than not, scores a victory in the Sound Mixing category. That’s why I feel it comes down to Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born. Now, last year, Dunkirk won both Mixing and Editing in a rare sweep. First Man could do the same, but at the end of the day, my heart is saying Bohemian Rhapsody. That film winning Cinema Audio Society Awards certainly helps my cause.
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
- Black Panther
- First Man
- The Favourite
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Roma
Who will win? The Favourite
Why? This category should be decided between The Favourite with its elaborate royal sets that popped off the screen, and Black Panther with its epic scope that brought Oakland, California and Wakanda, Africa simultaneously to life in the most Marvel-ous of ways. It is a huge step forward that a superhero movie scored so many Oscar nominations (including Best Picture). It will win its fair share of Oscars on February 24, just not in this category. The period piece production design of The Favourite makes it the favorite in my mind.
ORIGINAL SCORE:
- BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
- Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
- If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
- Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
- Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Who will win? If Beale Street Could Talk by Nicholas Britell
Why? No other film’s score in this category, and even in 2018 as a whole, captured the emotive feel of a film with musical notes like Britell did in Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk. That was one of the things that popped off the screen for me the moment I left the theater after witnessing the gem of a movie. The score. It is as sonically succulent as Jenkins’ visual beauty.
ORIGINAL SONG:
- All The Stars from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
- I’ll Fight from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
- The Place Where Lost Things Go from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
- Shallow from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
- When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
Who will win? Shallow
Why? This is one of those few locks I mentioned earlier. No way that Shallow doesn’t win. When I left the theater after witnessing the marvel that is Black Panther, I thought there was no way Lamar does not get to make an Oscar speech this year. Then, I saw A Star is Born. Game. Over.
MAKEUP AND HAIR:
- Border
- Mary Queen of Scots
- Vice
Who will win? Vice
Why? Remember when Bale won the Golden Globe and thanked his makeup and hair team for that unbelievable transformation that was turning him into Dick Cheney? Yeah, that performance was out of the park amazing, but it doesn’t even get in the conversation without the masterful work of the makeup and hair team of Vice.
COSTUME DESIGN:
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
- Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
- The Favourite, Sandy Powell
- Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
- Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne
Who will win? Powell will win, the question is … for what? The Favourite will be the flick she wins for costuming!
Why? Powell is one of the most decorated costumers in the business and she will easily add another trophy to her collection with the stunning costumes she produced for The Favourite. They are exquisite and on a whole nether level than anything she’s accomplished prior—and yes, that is saying something.
VISUAL EFFECTS:
- Avengers: Infinity War
- Christopher Robin
- First Man
- Ready Player One
- Solo: A Star Wars Story
Who will win? Avengers: Infinity War
Why? Avengers: Infinity War wins this category for what they were able to do with Josh Brolin as Thanos alone. Sure, there was a million and a half other special effects shots brilliantly achieved in this film. But, that Thanos character is excellence incarnate.