Although there is a wee bit of debate earlier in awards season of whether Allison Janney would be a lock for her Best Supporting Actress Oscar or if Laurie Metcalf could catch her in their battle of the overbearing mothers, that faded into oblivion as the season progressed. In fact, there is absolutely no more discussion in terms of who will win the four major thespian categories at this year’s Academy Awards.
Why has all the suspense been exhumed from the acting categories over the last few years and is there any way to have it return?
There is no question that Gary Oldman will win his first ever Oscar for his iconic turn as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour (which also has a nom for Best Picture). Sam Rockwell better get his speech tip top because he too is guaranteed to score his first golden statue for his role in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Allison Janney is money in the bank to score her first-ever high honor in film for Best Supporting Actress, thanks to a sensationally sizzling turn as Tonya Harding’s mom in I, Tonya. Lastly, Best Actress… is there any doubt that Frances McDormand will win another Best Actress Oscar for her earth-shaking role as a mom seeking justice in Three Billboards? No, there is not.
Has it always been this way? It sure seems that way. There used to be a bit of mystery to the process. What changed and is it merely a product of our times?
In 2017, all the predicted winners went on to win. There were no surprises. Sure, the end of the evening was a huge shock, what with Moonlight winning and La La Land losing with all the confusion that ensued that found presenters Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway firmly in the center of an award firestorm of chaos.
Back in 2016, heading into the big night, we knew that Leonardo DiCaprio would finally score his first Oscar, Brie Larson would be rewarded for her stellar work in in Room and Alicia Vikander was also a lock for her turn in The Danish Girl. Even though there was a little suspense in the Best Supporting Actor category, by the time the week of the Oscars rolled around, those of us who do this for a living knew that Bridge of Spies breakout star Mark Rylance was going to score Oscar gold.
You’d have to go back to 2015 for any kind of drama in the acting categories. It arrived in only one. Many, especially the man himself, thought Michael Keaton would win Best Actor for his work in Birdman. Remember that image of Keaton getting ready to stand up, speech notes in hand?! But, it was Eddie Redmayne that heard his name called for his stunning work in The Theory of Everything. Given that Birdman would win Best Picture and its success sat largely on the shoulders of Keaton, that was a surprise for certain.
So, think about that. Out of 12 acting categories in the last 3 years, only one proved to be competitive. Given that audiences largely tune in to see who will win Best Picture and if they’re favorite stars will win the acting categories, it could be a huge problem that the Academy. Now it seems that the Academy could even have those Oscar statues engraved weeks before we get to the actual ceremony!
But, in this era of award proliferation, it’s hard NOT to have a favorite emerge. It’s not like actors win an award at one ceremony and then another takes the next award at a different show. No, it’s a long, but sure-footed dance to the big day. There are so many award ceremonies along the way. From the SAGs to the Critics Association awards, the competition is over before it even becomes a contest. Some would argue, and this guy certainly does, that many categories could be decided before a movie even premieres!
We all knew that Gary Oldman was assured of an Oscar the moment the first audiences saw Darkest Hour and the tweetstorms hit fever pitch. Remember when Jared Leto emerged a front-runner for Best Supporting Actor when Dallas Buyers Club was first shown? It is a snowball going downhill that turns into an avalanche. That is what is happening now and there appears to be no way to change it.
Can the Academy do anything to increase the suspense for their biggest night of the year in the acting categories. Sadly, there is not a thing. Why? Because this problem is not specifically an Oscar thing. This is an issue about the world of film we live in now. There are so many awards shows. There are so many film festivals and with a majority of the films that get honored each year being delivered to theaters in October and November, there is such a short window for consideration and therefore, this is the system we are stuck with… whether we like it or not.
It’s not such a bad thing, honestly. The Academy Awards are not simply about four categories. Yes, they are called the “majors,” but the entire night is a celebration of all things cinema and for those of us who adore the medium, who will win every one of the 24 categories is as enjoyable as trying to predict who will win the big four. Hopefully, for those with an interest in the Oscars, it forces the audience to dive deeper into the films that are nominated across the wide swath of those two dozen categories. Discover those live action short films, the documentaries — they’re all astounding! Look at the major contending films differently — study sound design, editing, special effects and cinematography. That’s where your competition truly lies.
Then, try to put on your prediction hat and this thing gets infinitely more challenging, fascinating, enlightening and entertaining. The Oscars are about the whole, not the parts. Acting categories are only one-sixth of the entire evening. Movies are much more than the faces who star in them and for those of us who write about the cinema, we know there are hundreds of people who have to come together and work in perfect harmony to craft a cinematic experience that stands the test of time. After devouring all that the movie industry gave us that is award worthy in any given 12-month period, your understanding of what makes movies so magical will only deepen and the entire experience will be richer, fuller and one that will continually remind why it is that this medium is so adored.