Oscar Watch: Who Will Win Best Actor?


Earlier this week, The Movie Mensch’s Oscar Watch predicted the Best Actress race would go to Brie Larson for her work on Room. This time out, we gaze into our crystal ball and reveal our pick to win the highest honor in Hollywood for leading men, Best Actor in a Motion Picture.

Sadly, this category probably has the least amount of drama of all of the awards that will be handed out on Oscar night, February 28. The moment this film started shooting, the freight train of Oscar buzz began for our winner and he hasn’t looked back since.

This edition of Oscar Watch explains why the other four are worthy of their nomination, but surely don’t stand a chance at winning. Then, we reveal why this is the year that a certain actor will finally get their hands on the golden statue and why we think this entire process has been hijacked by sentimentality for a performance that is hardly this performer’s best and simultaneously not the best performance by an actor in 2016.

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Fassbender stepped in for Christian Bale when the latter backed out of this Danny Boyle directed flick and everyone behind the Steve Jobs biopic had to thank their lucky stars. The X-Men: Days of Future Past star was beyond brilliant as the Apple founder and captured his essence over the course of three product reveals (i.e. the perfect three-act structure) in this Aaron Sorkin scripted (one of our biggest Oscar snubs of 2016 was this script not being nominated) gem.

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By the end of Steve Jobs, you may not have the warm and fuzzies over Fassbender and his turn as Jobs. But, that was clearly the canvas the British actor was tasked with painting. He’s not necessarily a likeable fellow. But, for us, there was no better performance by an actor in 2016 and therefore deserving of this award. This year, unfortunately, the best won’t win.

Matt Damon, The Martian
Damon achieved something truly impossible with his extraordinary work in The Martian. He held our attention for large amounts of time where the only person on the screen was him. Watching someone try to stay alive, grow potatoes and wire and re-wire stuff isn’t necessarily great cinema. But, with Damon doing the work… it was electric and so much more.

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We would love to see Damon achieve an upset on Oscar night because he is so deserving. But, we have to think that this year, the actor will have to be satisfied with being welcomed back into the Academy Award inner circle, years after he won for co-writing the screenplay to Good Will Hunting.

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
The happy to be nominated award this year in this category goes to Cranston for Trumbo. Yes, he plays a real life Hollywood hero who stood up to the status quo because the status quo was wrong. Sure he played a screenwriter who was beloved and penned some of our greatest pictures of all-time. But, Trumbo wasn’t exactly the most widely adored film upon its release, even with all that pedigree.

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Therefore, it’s pretty amazing that the former Breaking Bad star is in this category. He is phenomenal in Trumbo, there is no question. And we are thrilled that he is nominated. Don’t get us wrong, he deserves it. Oscar Watch just thought that the Trumbo shipped had sailed. So, again, Cranston should be saying a lot of, “I’m just honored to be nominated” on the red carpet because that is truly his biggest victory.

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Very few performers can score Oscar nominations in successive years. Tom Hanks did it (and won both years). Eddie Redmayne did it, and it is highly unlikely that he will be a repeat winner for his work in The Danish Girl.

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The moment the first still of Redmayne as a woman was released, the buzz started. He hadn’t even uttered a word. His nomination (after winning last year for The Theory for Everything) is well deserved, without a doubt. But, that is all it will result in… a nomination and also joining a rare club. Not too many can say they received Oscar nominations in successive years.

And the Oscar goes to…

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
We’ve been asking this question about The Revenant since seeing it, weeks before it arrived on screens for the general public. Just because a film was difficult to make, does it render it award worthy? The answer is a resounding no for this journalist. Clearly many, many disagree as DiCaprio has been raking in every single honor he could be considered for for his leading man turn in The Revenant. From the SAG Award, to the BAFTA, to the Golden Globe… it’s Leo’s year to finally be the best lead actor of his peer.

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Sadly, he turned in a much more fiery performance in The Wolf of Wall Street. He should have won for that, or at least The Departed. Yet, the accolades for DiCaprio and his work on The Revenant is the one that appears to be finally getting him his golden trophy. Is he an actor worthy of an Oscar who does not yet have one? Yes. Is this a “career” Oscar that the Academy loves to award people (see Martin Scorsese for The Departed) who they mistakenly overlooked in the past? Yes… and no. Yes because they should have given him one or two awards by now. No, because this is not his best performance and he is so young… surely DiCaprio has time to turn in a performance worthy of the “life’s work” Oscar that the Academy appears to be giving him for The Revenant.