It’s the best time of the year for us movie-loving folks, Oscar season. This Sunday, April 25, the highest honor in the field of cinema will be bestowed on 23 categories, including—of course—Best Picture. If you are in an Oscar pool or just like to predict on your own, you’re going to want to read The Movie Mensch’s annual Academy Awards predictions feature.
We break down every category and not only predict the victor but give the reason why this individual or individuals will be celebrating profusely on Oscar night.
To call 2020-2021 an odd year is the understatement of the millennium. Therefore, the films nominated reflect that. Although, there were a number of Oscar contenders who simply moved to next year to avoid not being seen or having to be seen on TV screens instead of those glorious massive movie screens in theaters. Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story comes to mind.
But there is something at work here. The films nominated in any given year usually reflect that year and that is absolutely the case with 2020-2021. Every single one of the nominees has something to say about our humanity and the landscape we call home and what occurred during 2020 with the Coronavirus and its sledgehammer of life destructions that followed. That background that has affected us all for far too long now, is reflected in the films that have “Oscar nominee” now forever attached to their moniker.
So, without further ado, ladies, and gentlemen, break out those Oscar pools and your pen, and let’s get to it!
Best Picture
- The Father
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Mank
- Minari
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Winner: Nomadland
Why: When you look over this list of nominees for Best Picture, a process of elimination immediately takes place. Yes, Nomadland will win the top honor, but films such as The Father, Promising Young Woman, and Sound of Metal deserve to be right up with the front-runner. I doubt there will be an upset this year—i.e., Sound of Metal. But if there is a competitor for Nomadland it will be The Father or Promising Young Woman. Judas and the Black Messiah has a shot given the landscape of our world and Black Lives Matter. Unfortunately, there is not a groundswell for that film at the moment, and don’t see it scoring Hollywood’s top honor. Nomadland won the BAFTA and the PGA, while The Trial of the Chicago 7 won the SAG awards. Count this award for Nomadland and as a tribute to all those who seemed to lose everything, thanks to the virus and its economic impact.
No matter how you slice it, it looks like Nomadland is your winner, but I wouldn’t count Promising Young Woman out—also given the #MeToo landscape that has permeated our culture in the last several years. Now, for me, The Father was the film that most emotionally destroyed me—in a good way. It also is timely as so many of us are dealing with parents who are moving on in years and the roles of caretakers are switching. It also features a performance from Anthony Hopkins that is for the ages. Unfortunately, The Father is a film that will possibly earn acting awards and not likely to take the top honor. So, once again, we are left with Nomadland.
That is not a bad thing. It’s a stellar made movie and it is also reflective of our times. Only in the year of a pandemic where tens of millions lost their jobs does a film come out about a woman who lives in her van and drives across the beautiful landscape of the U.S. It also is the most cinematic of the movies nominated and I believe that is what puts it over the top.
Best Director
- Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
- Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
- David Fincher, Mank
- Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
- Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Winner: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Why: She’s swept the guild awards, and not only that, but has Zhao created a world that was colorful, blissful, and filled with the glorious wide-open spaces of the greatest nation on earth. But Nomadland is a uniquely human story for our time. The manner with which she helmed the effort was flawless. This is directing perfection. No one else stands a chance.
Best Actor
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Steven Yeun, Minari
Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Why: Here’s the thing, for me, the Best Actor performance of the year was turned in by Hopkins in The Father. But he will not win. Why? For two reasons. This is an opportunity to honor a gifted actor who has left us far too soon in Boseman. Second, there were several monologues that Boseman gave during Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom that shook the fillings out of my teeth. They were the stuff of Oscar gold, therefore, it’s his to lose.
It was that kind of power that the Academy adores—those crescendos that build up to an emotive explosion that only Boseman could achieve. He deserves it. This is not a career award. This is an award for a person who turned in the best performance. It’s just that Hopkins broke my heart in a million pieces, and it has a special spot in my soul. But this is Boseman’s year. End of story.
Best Actress
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Winner: Carrey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Why: Davis just won Best Supporting Actress for her work in Fences, i.e., she just won. McDormand just won for Three Billboards and if she won in this category, she would have more Oscars than the great Meryl Streep and that is just not in the cards this year. She may win again, just not this year. Kirby should be grateful to be nominated because she doesn’t have a chance to win—despite turning in the most crushing performance by a woman all year. Day does an incredible job in a terrible movie, so that isn’t going to win.
That leaves Mulligan and the force of nature she exhibited in Promising Young Woman. She was every bit that character—right to her core. The way she turned on a dime was haunting and electric. It is the performance of her career and the Academy does like to award starlets on their way up for turns that are out of this world. That certainly qualifies with what Mulligan achieved in Purnell’s Promising Young Woman.
Best Supporting Actor
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
- Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
- Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Why: He’s been winning everything along the way and there is no reason to think that that will cease with the biggest award of them all. Not only that, but he also enthusiastically deserves it. It was a firestorm of a performance that was firmly shaded with nuanced unadulterated love that stems from the heart and rules our world.
The way he entered the picture and commanded every frame since his arrival is the stuff of legend. This is one of those awards that was decided the second his movie concluded.
Best Supporting Actress
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Winner: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Why: When she showed up on that Arkansas farm, all the tension that had been percolating for months suddenly lifted. She was a light in a sea of American Dream darkness. Her arrival also was a springboard for the family to turn a corner and truly make a life for themselves. None of that would have been as believably and as emotively intense if not for the performance of Youn as the grandmother of this clan. She brought humor, knowledge, a lightheartedness, and an innocence that was inescapable and pitch-perfect for what the role called for… the Oscar is hers.
Original Screenplay
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Minari
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Winner: Promising Young Woman
Why: Have you seen this movie?! It is a hurricane of verbal volleys that are handled by its cast with aplomb. It is also timely and took a lot of hutzpah to get it written and filmed. In this writer’s opinion, Emerald Fennell is a lock. What Fennell did with Promising Young Woman is incredible as it took audiences on a journey of revenge and searching for justice. The best part is that it never goes where you think it should. That’s gold in screenwriting.
Adapted Screenplay
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- The Father
- Nomadland
- One Night in Miami
- The White Tiger
Winner: Nomadland
Why: This category will come down to The Father and Nomadland. Since the latter is going to win Best Director and Best Picture, we think it is pretty safe to say that Zhao will walk away with this trophy as well. What’s fascinating is she will be the first solo screenwriter to win this award since Emma Thompson did it in 1995.
Animated Feature
- Onward
- Over the Moon
- A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
- Soul
- Wolfwalkers
Winner: Soul
Why: First of all, it’s from Pixar/Disney, who have had a stranglehold on this category for years. But that doesn’t mean that other films can sneak in and surprise when warranted. Wolfwalkers is an achievement that is mind-blowingly moving and effective. But does it have what it takes to topple Soul featuring Pixar’s first African-American lead in Jamie Foxx? Plus, it deals with life like so many of Pixar’s movies do—but this time it is different. It is the film that will make you think about your own life, your own choices, and your future and what exactly you want to do with it. This is exactly the kind of movie, animated or otherwise, that Oscar loves.
Production Design
- The Father
- Mank
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- News of the World
- Tenet
Winner: Mank
Why: Now, for many reasons, I believe that The Father should win this category. The way the set had to be constructed, given the ending, was a task that seems Herculean. That being said, what was achieved in Mank is astounding. Every little detail felt like the 30s, from Hearst Castle in its prime to the desert where Gary Oldman’s Mank penned that little movie called Citizen Kane. I just don’t see anyone on this nominated list topping what was done on Mank.
Here’s an extra plus for Mank, sometimes the minutest details in production design require color to make them pop. Everything the production design team did with Mank was with director David Fincher filming in black and white and giving it the feel of a movie from the 30s. That added layers to the difficulty the production designer had to deal with in creating their design masterpiece.
Costume Design
- Emma
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Mank
- Mulan
- Pinocchio
Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Why: All of the costuming on Ma Rainey’s was absolutely stunning. But this award will go to the Black Bottom team for one reason that put them over the top—Davis’ titular character’s duds. The layers, the timeliness of the prints, the colors to fit the production design palette… it was all pitch-perfect. Also, the way it moved with Ma when she sang her heart out was on purpose. It was all part of the filmmakers’ wide-scoped plan for his stage-to-screen effort that could have felt small but instead felt out of this world.
Cinematography
- Sean Bobbitt, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Erik Messerschmidt, Mank
- Dariusz Wolski, News of the World
- Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
- Phedon Papamichael, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Winner: Nomadland
Why: This category is about as much of a lock as it comes. The cinematography in Nomadland was almost like a character in itself. The vastness of the United States is captured in such a way that could not be more inviting.
The characters on this landscape may be living on the edge by driving around in their vans and utilizing them also as homes. But the lush landscape makes it all so appealing and draws you in like nothing else. Remember that line in America the Beautiful about the “purple mountain’s majesty?” Somehow, cinematographer Joshua James Richards has captured that exact sentiment with his lens, and it is glory personified.
Editing
- The Father
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Winner: Sound of Metal
Why: The Sound of Metal had the most astounding of hills to climb when it came to its technical elements. It’s sound, we’ll get to in a moment, but the editing that Mikkel E.G. Nielsen employed played a vital role in the entire effort being as explosively and endearingly effective as it is. When Riz Ahmed’s Ruben slowly goes deaf and then completely loses his hearing, the editing must become part of the storytelling process and Nielsen achieved that in droves and elevated an already outstanding movie into the stratosphere.
Makeup and Hairstyling
- Emma
- Hillbilly Elegy
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Mank
- Pinocchio
Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Why: Again, the key to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom winning in this category lies with the titular character. The hair and makeup department went 1,000 extra miles to give the summer heat of the day its due (have you seen so many hot sweaty people onscreen? Heck I felt like I needed a fan to watch it!) and then there’s how Davis’ Ma was made up with makeup and hairstyling. It’s uncanny.
For a face that is so familiar to so many millions, the team made her almost unrecognizable. She WAS Ma Rainey and the way she carried herself with that costume and makeup and hairstyling is also part of the reason why this category is a lock for the Netflix film.
Sound
- Greyhound
- Mank
- News of the World
- Soul
- Sound of Metal
Winner: Sound of Metal
Why: When a character is going deaf and comes from a world of being a drummer in a heavy metal band, it doesn’t work as well as it did in Sound of Metal unless the Sound is tip-top. That is exactly what happened with the film and by putting the viewer in the head of Ahmed’s Ruben’s head, the sound team did the movie a service that is priceless. We feel to our core what it is like to be deaf. The silence amongst the madness of the world.
Heck, even the silence at the retreat Ahmed visits to embrace his new normal is all equally wired into what a deaf person experiences. No film in history has captured that element of the human existence quite as exquisitely as Sound of Metal.
Visual Effects
- Love and Monsters
- The Midnight Sky
- Mulan
- The One and Only Ivan
- Tenet
Winner: Tenet
Why: Hey, they got to give Christopher Nolan something for trying to jump-start the movie theater business! Of course, I’m kidding… kind of! But seriously, the special effects—especially during those envelope-pushing action sequences—are off the charts amazing. They will be referring to the effects utilized in this film for years in academia and with other filmmakers trying to achieve something as otherworldly as the Tenet team did with Nolan’s film.
Score
- Da 5 Bloods
- Mank
- Minari
- News of the World
- Soul
Winner: Soul
Why: There are scores that accompany a film and there are scores that are part of the fabric of the movie. Soul was that movie. What Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Baptiste did put them in a league all their own. Somehow, someway, the trio scored a film that added emotion and yes, color, to the entire landscape of the Pixar film. It is one of those scores that people are buying and playing until it wears out because musically it stands alone. Cinematically, it is a match made in movie heaven.
Song
- Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
- Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah)
- Lo Sì (Seen) (The Life Ahead)
- Speak Now (One Night in Miami)
- Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Winner: Husavik
Why: Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga) is the most heart-string pulling songs of the ones nominated, but that is not why it will win. A “Best Song” winner should be a part of the storytelling, if possible, and not just a song played as the credits roll. Husavik was that song. The entire movie led up to that moment and if you didn’t have tears in your eyes when Rachel McAdams and Will Ferrell performed it at the finals of Eurovision, you might want to visit a heart doctor. It is divine incarnate. The performance brought the entire movie to fruition and elevated it to new levels no one ever could have expected from a movie starring Ferrell. Love you Will, but it’s true!
Documentary Feature
- Collective
- Crip Camp
- The Mole Agent
- My Octopus Teacher
- Time
Winner: My Octopus Teacher
Why: One of the most touching and moving documentaries of the year is My Octopus Teacher and during this time of climate change where the creatures who call our oceans home have never been more threatened, this story of a man and an octopus is exactly the movie we need right now. It will win because of that, but also because it is a fabulously constructed documentary that does what the milieu does best. It informs. It entertains. It moves. Most importantly, it strikes a chord in the audience to action. Also, My Octopus Teacher is a rare documentary that one can watch repeatedly.
International Feature
- Another Round, Denmark
- Better Days, Hong Kong
- Collective, Romania
- The Man Who Sold His Skin, Tunisia
- Quo Vadis, Aida? Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Winner: Another Round, Denmark
Why: There is a contagious and glorious joy to Another Round that must be celebrated. One of the ways that it can be feted is to award it Best International Feature. Plus, it stars Mads Mikkelsen and anything he’s in is the best. Seriously.
Animated Short
- Burrow
- Genius Loci
- If Anything Happens I Love You
- Opera
- Yes-People
Winner: If Anything Happens I Love You
Why: Mass shootings happen almost every day, sadly, and while the government does nothing to stop it, parents and siblings, aunts and uncles, friends and acquaintances alike grieve. If Anything Happens I Love You follows parents who are grieving the loss of their child in a school shooting. It is timely, yes, but the film is so much more than that. It’s cathartic and will also move you to do what you can do to implement change in our society. It goes against nature for parents to bury children, and this animated short embodies that like no other.
Documentary Short
- Colette
- A Concerto Is a Conversation
- Do Not Split
- Hunger Ward
- A Love Song for Latasha
Winner: A Concerto Is a Conversation
Why: This short has been everywhere! It is rare that a documentary short gets the international press recognition that A Concerto Is a Conversation has gotten. Heck, just last week those involved in the movie visited Good Morning America. Now, publicity and public awareness are never a reason to pick a Documentary Short contender for an Oscar. But there is something about this film that is touching people and that is why it is everywhere. The story of a jazz pianist and film composer who takes it upon himself to trace his family’s lineage with the help of his 91-year-old grandfather is remarkable. Kris Bowers is the subject (he actually wrote the score to the Oscar-winning Green Book) and he and his grandfather trace their legacy all the way back to Jim Crow Florida to him performing at the world-famous Walt Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles.
Live-Action Short
- Feeling Through
- The Letter Room
- The Present
- Two Distant Strangers
- White Eye
Winner: Two Distant Strangers
Why: A science fiction live-action short? Yes, please! Two Distant Strangers is written by Travon Free and directed by Free and Martin Desmond Roe. It looks at black souls’ death at the hands of police. Yes, it couldn’t be timelier, but it is so much more than that. Its title says it all and over the course of the film, the moniker will become sadly prophetic. Adding a punch to this tale is it is a time loop sci-fi thriller where the protagonist’s death is repeated every day until he figures out how to break this cycle. But, given the fact that there seems to be a black person shot by a cop almost every other week, this is the movie the Academy wants representing it in this category for history.