Oscar Watch 2022: Predicting Every Academy Awards Winner: Will CODA Win Big, Or Does The Power of the Dog Have the Mojo Heading into Hollywood’s Biggest Night?


It may seem like an uphill battle to unset the front-runner for this year’s Oscars—Netflix’s The Power of the Dog—but lately the seismic momentum has been changing to another streaming service’s offering. The Jane Campion-directed epic western scored twelve nominations for Hollywood’s biggest night. Does the film that earned the second-highest number of nods, Dune, stand a chance? What about the next two on the most nomination list, Belfast (7) and West Side Story (7)?

It’s time for that yearly tradition that for the Movie Mensch has truly been happening since I was a little Mensch at the age of fourteen when I filled out my first Oscar pool. But here we are, decades later, and I’ve been covering the Oscars since I started in this business in 2000. Each year, Oscars come, predictions follow. That’s how I roll. Now, it’s that time of year once again. Need some help with your Oscar predictions? Read on…

BEST PICTURE

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Who will win: CODA

Why? One, because it deserves it. Since we saw the film during the final quarter of 2021, the reaction was immediate: This is your Best Picture 2022 winner, hands down. My opinion on that subject has not changed, but the winds of Hollywood sure have as CODA took home the top awards this past weekend at the PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice Awards.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Who will win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Why? Because this is a wonderful way to honor a film without having to give it Best Picture. What a means to deliver a golden bald guy to a movie that is what it is due to the person behind the camera. I had problems with many of the characters, I can always look past that in the dark when I’m immersed in what’s going on on the silver screen.

BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, tick, tick, BOOM!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Who will win: Will Smith, King Richard

Why? There has been a common thread throughout awards season and there is no way that this ship changes course near the end of the stream. Will Smith has scored every major award along the way and it’s hard to envision an Oscars evening that doesn’t include Smith finally holding up an Academy Award. What he did in King Richard was nothing short of a cinematic miracle. If someone else deserves it, it would be Garfield. I just don’t think there’s any kind of force that can stop the speeding ship that is the SS Will Smith.

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Who will win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Why? Personally, I am a huge appreciator of the work of Chastain, but do not care for anything about The Eyes of Tammy Faye if it’s fascinating and saddest to the commentary  I would adore it if Stewart won for her portrayal of Princess Diana in Spencer. The thing is, she is the sole representer for that film in all twenty-three categories. Only two actresses in the last two decades have won Best Actress being the sole nominee from their film. Add in the fact that the Academy adores Chastain but has never given her a statue… looks like this year, is her year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ciarin Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Who will win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Why? Again, he deserves it. Then again, yes, everyone nominated deserves it. There was something strikingly unique about the performance that was gleaned from Kotsur that was otherworldly and transforming. It would be hard to argue that anyone who experienced CODA exited that experience not thinking the same thing as moi, “That man deserves an Oscar.” Let’s make some history.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Who will win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Why? She’s been cleaning up across all the guild and critics’ awards and there is no reason her winning streak across awards season should stop at the biggest night of all. Plus, she’s the “X” factor in Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story. The enormous weight of the film’s conclusion rides on her shoulders and as it occurs, one thinks back on everything DeBose did prior, and it all makes perfect sense that that woman would do that thing at that moment. It all came down to the actress and she hit a grand slam.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

CODA

Drive My Car

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

Who will win: CODA

Why? By the time the Coda falls on CODA, there is an emotive pull between the viewer and the cast that is unbreakable. That is due to the performances of the stellar ensemble. But let’s be real. Those actors need words to make the emotion raw and real. The CODA script is a study in how to tightly tell a story and wrap it in such a way that the entire journey works as something that becomes a part of you.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Worst Person in the World

Who will win: Licorice Pizza

Why? First of all, the fact that Paul Thomas Anderson does not have a directing Oscar is a crime. So, the Academy will do what they have done with Spike Lee and Quentin Tarantino, two of the greatest auteurs of our time. They each have Oscars for screenplay and not a single one for the director. Actually, Tarantino has two. So, now, it’s time for Anderson to get his and for a delight of a film, /Licorice Pizza.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Who will win: Dune

Why? Vast corners of the universe, all made approachable by the incredible cinematography unit on this puppy.

BEST FILM EDITING

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick…BOOM!

Who will win: Dune

Why? This category comes down to two unbelievably edited films—King Richard and Dune. So much of what King Richard caught with the tennis scenes is the talent of the two leads who portray Venus and Serena Williams, had to be made to look all the more fierce by some seriously tense editing. But I got to give this category for Dune. That was an epic, not a short movie, and therefore in never drag. That is as much a credit to the director as it is the editor who kept things crips.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Who will win: Dune

Why? Have you seen it? The thing is this is tough to beat in this category. Nightmare Alley doesn’t give off the feel it does without its production design. West Side Story is a glory of the visual and has captured New York during a time period where the city changed immensely. The Tragedy of Macbeth has a look that is nothing like we’re seen before. But in the end, this is all about Dune.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Who will win: Cruella

Why? The costumes in Cruella are beyond anything achieved in the last cinematic year. When Emmy Thompson and Emma Watson did their building, it was always in the most haute culture that one could imagine for this world. Seriously, the costumes were a character all to themselves.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Who will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Why? Jessica Chastain does not win her Best Oscar without the help of the makeup and hairstyling crew her turn in into the iconic Tammy Faye and considerate immensely to putting Jessica in the position where she WAS Tammy Faye and it cam through every frame.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Encanto

Parallel Mothers

The Power of the Dog

Who will win: Dune

Why? Hans Zimmer’s score is a masterpiece. What he has done previously, which is indelible, is merely a precursor to this once-in-a-lifetime gem.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Be Alive, King Richard

Dos Oruguitas, Encanto

Down to Joy, Belfast

No Time To Die, No Time to Die

Somehow You Do You, Four Good Days

Who will win: No Time To Die, No Time to Die

Why? This one is going to be close. I would never bet against Disney, but in a move they wish they could fix. They never put forth We Don’t Talk About a Bruno, the number one in the country. Instead, we have Dos Oruguitas. There is a possible that a slew of voters will vote for it believing it’s the Bruno. Instead, the Bond theme free Billie Eilish will take on the trophy, making this the third Oscar a Bond theme in a row. To think previous to that, it was a big fat zero going by to Dr. No.

BEST SOUND

Belfast

Dune

No Time To Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Who will win: Dune

Why? You would be hard-pressed to find a film that worked the sound dials better than Denis Villeneuve and what the team achieved in Dune. The rest of solid, but Dune is an achievement.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Free Guy

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Who will win: Dune

Why? It’s the most sci-fi of the bunch and therefore, this is a slam dunk. Plus, those effects were mind-blowing and envelope-pushing.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

The Worst Person in the World

Who will win: Drive My Car

Why? Have you seen it? No? Head over to HBO Max and watch it RIGHT NOW. It is really rare that a foreign film is nominated for Best Picture and doesn’t take the Best International Features Film.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells Vs. The Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Who will win: Encanto

Why? The last nine victors came from under the Disney umbrella. The reason that is mentioned is due to the fact that this category should come down to Encanto and Flee, although The Mitchells Vs. The Machines should be the winner. Therefore, at this point… do not bet against the Mouse House.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Summer of Soul…or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised

Writing With Fire

Who will win: Summer of Soul…or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised

Why? What director Questlove has achieved with Summer of Soul is nothing more than a miracle that also serves as a keen reminder of how far we have come and frankly, how far we have to go in race relations. Taking an even, The Harlem Cultural Festival, in 1969 and comparing to the juggernaut that was Woodstock that would take place over one weekend, whereas the Harlem far would be every weekend all summer. It was introduced by the major and project some of the best artists performing in Harlem… for free. Stevie Wonder, Sly and the Family Stone, and the Staple Singers are just a few of the notable artists that grace the Harlem street. Meanwhile, Questlove fills the whole brain with a slew of princess information about the neighborhood, now and then and particularly, why this even was so transcending.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Audible

Lead Me Home

The Queen of Basketball

Three Songs for Benazir

When We Were Bullies

Who will win: The Queen of Basketball

Why? This is one of the more competitive categories for the biggest award in this medium. The momentum has to be on the Queen of Basketball. Plus, it’s March madness.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Affairs of the Art

Bestia

Box Ballet

Robin Robin

The Windshield Wiper

Who will win: Robin Robin

Why? Netflix animation took industry leaps this past year, what with the release of The Mitchells vs. The Machines and other entries in 2022. Another example arrives via the Animated Short category at the Oscars as Robin Robin looks to win Netflix Animation’s first Academy Award.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Ala Kachuu – Take and Run

The Dress

The Long Goodbye

On My Mind

Please Hold

Who will win: The Long Goodbye

Why? Riz Ahmed stars, himself an Oscar nominee, and your short live-action flick just got the Academy’s attention. The Long Goodbye