It may seem like an uphill battle to unset the front-runner for this year’s Oscars—Netflix’s The Power of the Dog—but lately the seismic momentum has been changing to another streaming service’s offering. The Jane Campion-directed epic western scored twelve nominations for Hollywood’s biggest night. Does the film that earned the second-highest number of nods, Dune, stand a chance? What about the next two on the most nomination list, Belfast (7) and West Side Story (7)?
It’s time for that yearly tradition that for the Movie Mensch has truly been happening since I was a little Mensch at the age of fourteen when I filled out my first Oscar pool. But here we are, decades later, and I’ve been covering the Oscars since I started in this business in 2000. Each year, Oscars come, predictions follow. That’s how I roll. Now, it’s that time of year once again. Need some help with your Oscar predictions? Read on…
BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Who will win: CODA
Why? One, because it deserves it. Since we saw the film during the final quarter of 2021, the reaction was immediate: This is your Best Picture 2022 winner, hands down. My opinion on that subject has not changed, but the winds of Hollywood sure have as CODA took home the top awards this past weekend at the PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice Awards.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Who will win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Why? Because this is a wonderful way to honor a film without having to give it Best Picture. What a means to deliver a golden bald guy to a movie that is what it is due to the person behind the camera. I had problems with many of the characters, I can always look past that in the dark when I’m immersed in what’s going on on the silver screen.
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick, BOOM!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Who will win: Will Smith, King Richard
Why? There has been a common thread throughout awards season and there is no way that this ship changes course near the end of the stream. Will Smith has scored every major award along the way and it’s hard to envision an Oscars evening that doesn’t include Smith finally holding up an Academy Award. What he did in King Richard was nothing short of a cinematic miracle. If someone else deserves it, it would be Garfield. I just don’t think there’s any kind of force that can stop the speeding ship that is the SS Will Smith.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Who will win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Why? Personally, I am a huge appreciator of the work of Chastain, but do not care for anything about The Eyes of Tammy Faye if it’s fascinating and saddest to the commentary I would adore it if Stewart won for her portrayal of Princess Diana in Spencer. The thing is, she is the sole representer for that film in all twenty-three categories. Only two actresses in the last two decades have won Best Actress being the sole nominee from their film. Add in the fact that the Academy adores Chastain but has never given her a statue… looks like this year, is her year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarin Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Who will win: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Why? Again, he deserves it. Then again, yes, everyone nominated deserves it. There was something strikingly unique about the performance that was gleaned from Kotsur that was otherworldly and transforming. It would be hard to argue that anyone who experienced CODA exited that experience not thinking the same thing as moi, “That man deserves an Oscar.” Let’s make some history.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Who will win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Why? She’s been cleaning up across all the guild and critics’ awards and there is no reason her winning streak across awards season should stop at the biggest night of all. Plus, she’s the “X” factor in Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story. The enormous weight of the film’s conclusion rides on her shoulders and as it occurs, one thinks back on everything DeBose did prior, and it all makes perfect sense that that woman would do that thing at that moment. It all came down to the actress and she hit a grand slam.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Who will win: CODA
Why? By the time the Coda falls on CODA, there is an emotive pull between the viewer and the cast that is unbreakable. That is due to the performances of the stellar ensemble. But let’s be real. Those actors need words to make the emotion raw and real. The CODA script is a study in how to tightly tell a story and wrap it in such a way that the entire journey works as something that becomes a part of you.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
The Worst Person in the World
Who will win: Licorice Pizza
Why? First of all, the fact that Paul Thomas Anderson does not have a directing Oscar is a crime. So, the Academy will do what they have done with Spike Lee and Quentin Tarantino, two of the greatest auteurs of our time. They each have Oscars for screenplay and not a single one for the director. Actually, Tarantino has two. So, now, it’s time for Anderson to get his and for a delight of a film, /Licorice Pizza.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Who will win: Dune
Why? Vast corners of the universe, all made approachable by the incredible cinematography unit on this puppy.
BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
Who will win: Dune
Why? This category comes down to two unbelievably edited films—King Richard and Dune. So much of what King Richard caught with the tennis scenes is the talent of the two leads who portray Venus and Serena Williams, had to be made to look all the more fierce by some seriously tense editing. But I got to give this category for Dune. That was an epic, not a short movie, and therefore in never drag. That is as much a credit to the director as it is the editor who kept things crips.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Who will win: Dune
Why? Have you seen it? The thing is this is tough to beat in this category. Nightmare Alley doesn’t give off the feel it does without its production design. West Side Story is a glory of the visual and has captured New York during a time period where the city changed immensely. The Tragedy of Macbeth has a look that is nothing like we’re seen before. But in the end, this is all about Dune.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Who will win: Cruella
Why? The costumes in Cruella are beyond anything achieved in the last cinematic year. When Emmy Thompson and Emma Watson did their building, it was always in the most haute culture that one could imagine for this world. Seriously, the costumes were a character all to themselves.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Who will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Why? Jessica Chastain does not win her Best Oscar without the help of the makeup and hairstyling crew her turn in into the iconic Tammy Faye and considerate immensely to putting Jessica in the position where she WAS Tammy Faye and it cam through every frame.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Who will win: Dune
Why? Hans Zimmer’s score is a masterpiece. What he has done previously, which is indelible, is merely a precursor to this once-in-a-lifetime gem.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Be Alive, King Richard
Dos Oruguitas, Encanto
Down to Joy, Belfast
No Time To Die, No Time to Die
Somehow You Do You, Four Good Days
Who will win: No Time To Die, No Time to Die
Why? This one is going to be close. I would never bet against Disney, but in a move they wish they could fix. They never put forth We Don’t Talk About a Bruno, the number one in the country. Instead, we have Dos Oruguitas. There is a possible that a slew of voters will vote for it believing it’s the Bruno. Instead, the Bond theme free Billie Eilish will take on the trophy, making this the third Oscar a Bond theme in a row. To think previous to that, it was a big fat zero going by to Dr. No.
BEST SOUND
Belfast
Dune
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Who will win: Dune
Why? You would be hard-pressed to find a film that worked the sound dials better than Denis Villeneuve and what the team achieved in Dune. The rest of solid, but Dune is an achievement.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Who will win: Dune
Why? It’s the most sci-fi of the bunch and therefore, this is a slam dunk. Plus, those effects were mind-blowing and envelope-pushing.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Who will win: Drive My Car
Why? Have you seen it? No? Head over to HBO Max and watch it RIGHT NOW. It is really rare that a foreign film is nominated for Best Picture and doesn’t take the Best International Features Film.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells Vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Who will win: Encanto
Why? The last nine victors came from under the Disney umbrella. The reason that is mentioned is due to the fact that this category should come down to Encanto and Flee, although The Mitchells Vs. The Machines should be the winner. Therefore, at this point… do not bet against the Mouse House.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul…or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised
Writing With Fire
Who will win: Summer of Soul…or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised
Why? What director Questlove has achieved with Summer of Soul is nothing more than a miracle that also serves as a keen reminder of how far we have come and frankly, how far we have to go in race relations. Taking an even, The Harlem Cultural Festival, in 1969 and comparing to the juggernaut that was Woodstock that would take place over one weekend, whereas the Harlem far would be every weekend all summer. It was introduced by the major and project some of the best artists performing in Harlem… for free. Stevie Wonder, Sly and the Family Stone, and the Staple Singers are just a few of the notable artists that grace the Harlem street. Meanwhile, Questlove fills the whole brain with a slew of princess information about the neighborhood, now and then and particularly, why this even was so transcending.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Who will win: The Queen of Basketball
Why? This is one of the more competitive categories for the biggest award in this medium. The momentum has to be on the Queen of Basketball. Plus, it’s March madness.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Box Ballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Who will win: Robin Robin
Why? Netflix animation took industry leaps this past year, what with the release of The Mitchells vs. The Machines and other entries in 2022. Another example arrives via the Animated Short category at the Oscars as Robin Robin looks to win Netflix Animation’s first Academy Award.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Who will win: The Long Goodbye
Why? Riz Ahmed stars, himself an Oscar nominee, and your short live-action flick just got the Academy’s attention. The Long Goodbye …