It’s my favorite time of year, awards season. Now, it is time for the best part of arriving at this point in the calendar—predicting Oscar victories! Who will win Oscar gold has been a question I’ve been answering ahead of the Academy Awards since I was 14-years-old. I’ve gotten pretty good at it and of course some years are better than others. There’s something about the myriad of masterful film work that was delivered to the viewing public in 2019 that I haven’t felt this confident in my Oscar predictions for some time.
Usually when a film is the one with the most nominations, it results in the most victories. This is not that year. Todd Phillips’ Joker leads the pack with 11 nominations, with three films close behind with 10 nods each: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917 and The Irishman.
There are 24 categories and The Movie Mensch makes our firm predictions on every single one of them. Those hard to guess categories—such as Documentary Short Subject, for example—is why you have The Movie Mensch on speed dial, people!
I proudly present the most important Oscar Watch you will read all year. As I gaze into my cinematic crystal ball, my readers get a leg up on the competition for any of those pools you might be inclined to join at the office or with friends.
Without further ado, here goes … your 2020 Oscar winners!
Best Picture
- Ford v Ferrari
- 1917
- The Irishman
- Joker
- Jojo Rabbit
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
Winner: 1917
Should Win: This thing has boiled down to a race between 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite and The Irishman. That streaming service bias will continue in 2020. You can just cross off Martin Scorsese’s return to the gangster film … at least for the biggest of Oscar’s awards. The Sam Mendes World War I picture just won the highest honor at the BAFTAs, and also scored the top prize from the Directors Guild and Producers Guild Awards. If anything else sneaks in, it will be Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. We all know that Oscar loves to salute itself and the movie-making aspect of the City of Angels. What “T” achieved with his film is nothing short of a masterpiece. Also, the filmmaker has announced that his next film will be his last … does Oscar salute him now with its highest honor? Possibly … it’s just that the way the winds are blowing, 1917 is your winner.
Best Director
- Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
- Sam Mendes – 1917
- Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
- Todd Phillips – Joker
Winner: Sam Mendes for 1917. The helmer has been cleaning up this awards season and there is nothing between now and Sunday that keeps me from feeling that the British filmmaker’s streak won’t continue. Plus, what he achieved with the World War I drama is something that will be studied in film schools for decades to come. He took what could have seemed like a gimmick and made it a primary storytelling tool to brilliance incarnate results. If anyone upsets here, it will be Bong Joon-ho for Parasite.
Should Win: Tarantino should win this category in a heartbeat. In any other year, this award is his and it would be his first for helming! He’s got two Oscars already, both are for screenplay. There is just something about the world he created with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood that we never wanted to leave. It is the rare film that can be witnessed repeatedly, and you will discover something new with each viewing. Love 1917. I could see watching it a few times, not every week—which is honestly something I could see doing with OUATIH. That has everything to do with Tarantino’s directing prowess on this particular flick. He has never crafted a more even movie in his entire career, and yes that is saying something. The reality is, what Mendes achieved with his 1917 is a supreme cinema achievement, there is just no way that the British director does not win his second Oscar (his first was for American Beauty).
Best Actor
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story
- Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
- Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Should Win: The Joker will make it a male acting category sweep. Heath Ledger won Best Supporting Actor for portraying Joker in The Dark Knight. Phoenix will win for Best Actor for his revolutionary turn as the titular soul in Joker. It’s not simply that the movie succeeds or fails, based on the lead male actor. After witnessing what Phoenix did with the profound Arthur Fleck character arc in Todd Phillips’ masterpiece, this race was over before it started. Not that artistry should be ranked, but this is firmly a case of 2019’s Joker having its star perform at such a level that every single acting performance of any kind during that year was an afterthought compared to what Phoenix delivered. He made a notorious evil-doer approachable, and even more than that: Fleck could be understood as a casualty of a system that failed society on two fronts—mentally and socio-economically. Just as a note … if anyone else deserves this award, it is Driver in Marriage Story. His simultaneously tragic, inspiring and frustrating husband in the midst of a divorce with a little boy at the center hit us like an emotive anvil.
Best Actress
- Renee Zellweger – Judy
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell
- Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Winner: Renee Zellweger for Judy
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan for Little Women or Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story. Not taking anything away from what Zellweger accomplished as the pop culture icon Judy Garland in what would turn out to be the final chapter of her life. It’s just both Johansson and Ronan achieved vast, transcendent performances with their roles in their respective films. Whereas Ronan anchored Greta Gerwig’s sublime take on Louisa May Alcott’s beloved classic tale of a group of sisters, Johansson achieved her stroke of genius in a thespian volleyball match with fellow nominee Adam Driver. Ronan gave us a Jo March that audiences today can firmly connect with, while still being a true-to-the-source-material turn that is a characterization to behold. Zellweger was astounding, yes, but it was a one-note masterpiece. Both Ronan and Johansson portrayed women whose journey was complicated and filled with both selfless and selfish needs. If I had to pick one, I’d go with Ronan. With the Irish actress … her winning an Academy Award is more about when, not if.
Best Supporting Actor
- Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Joe Pesci – The Irishman
- Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
- Al Pacino – The Irishman
- Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Winner: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Pitt all day long, every day and even on Sundays. He brought a soft spoken touch to Cliff Booth, as written by Quentin Tarantino’s script, that goes firmly against the Hollywood landscape at the center of QT’s world. Pitt’s stunt man, bodyguard and assistant to Leonardo DiCaprio’s western movie and television star does a lot of talking with his fists, yes. But when he does speak, it is in a manner that endears every single audience member to him—even though as we learn more about him, allegedly, there should be feelings that are anything but affinity towards Booth. Yet there he is, leaving Rick Dalton (DiCaprio) at one point when if there ever was a moment he deserved to be self-centric it was then, instead he utters, “I just try to be a good friend.” That good friend is going to win Oscar gold. On a side note, it’s great that Hanks got nominated for portraying Fred Rogers. That was a nomination almost 20 years in the making. In any other year, he wins this category … hands down. There is no getting in the way of the Oscar freight train that is Brad Pitt in 2020.
Best Supporting Actress
- Laura Dern – Marriage Story
- Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
- Margot Robbie – Bombshell
- Florence Pugh – Little Women
- Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
Winner: Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Should Win: Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell. This is not a popular opinion. Dern was fantastic opposite Johansson as her divorce attorney, for that there is no question. The thing is, since she started filling her professional shelves at home with every single Best Supporting Actress award this season, there is no way this tsunami of support will subside. She is the daughter of legends—Bruce Dern and Diane Ladd—and has never won an Oscar after decades of stellar work. This is a combination career salute and great performance rewarded victory for Dern. Yet, if we truly are awarding the “best” and that is this category’s moniker, that Oscar statue must go to Bates for Richard Jewell. Her painfully raw and realistic turn as the mother of the Atlanta Olympic bombing hero-turned-suspect is one of the best ever gleaned from director Clint Eastwood. The love of a mother and son is so tragically captured by Bates and Jewell star Paul Walker Hauser that when the government and the media start to turn on him and it appears that the walls are starting to close in on their formerly peaceful and happy world, the agony a mother exhibits for her son’s plight is palpable. In the hands of Bates, the viewer’s sentiment towards the government and the media could actually be described as criminal. Nobody should have to endure what Bobi Jewell experienced.
Best Original Screenplay
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
- Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
- Parasite – Bong Joon-ho
- Knives Out – Rian Johnson
- 1917 – Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Winner: Parasite by Bong Joon-ho
Should Win: QT for OUATIH! It’s a reading rich and performer powerful script that puts the original in Best Original Screenplay. The momentum in the last few weeks has seen a shift towards Parasite, and it deserves it. That is a stunning script on many levels, from its character development to narrative twist and turns. The thing about Tarantino’s work is that it possesses a layer of reflectiveness that isn’t intertwined into the Parasite landscape until the bitter end. That human feeling, I believe, is the difference in this category and why Tarantino should emerge victorious.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- The Irishman – Steven Zaillian
- Joker – Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
- Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi
- Little Women – Greta Gerwig
- The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten
Winner: Jojo Rabbit by Taika Waititi
Should win: Jojo Rabbit by Waititi! The New Zealand supreme talent penned a script that somehow managed to thread a needle that could not have been thinner. Showcasing the absolute absurdity of Nazis and the politics of hate and discrimination through humor can be highly effective, but only if it is done with a supreme level of attention to detail and what specifically is being lampooned. Waititi does that and the fact that he managed to craft an imaginary friend of a little German boy during World War II who is Adolf Hitler and it works throughout makes his script worthy. Telling a story set so many moons ago and managing to make it relevant to the headlines of today is also no easy task and Waititi does it with such aplomb that is a literary movie miracle.
Best International Film
- Corpus Christi – Poland
- Honeyland – North Macedonia
- Les Miserables – France
- Pain and Glory – Spain
- Parasite – South Korea
Winner: Parasite
Should Win: South Korea will handily win its first Best International Film Oscar for the Bong Joon-ho crafted stunner that could even find itself scoring a first and winning Best Picture as well. (Clearly, we don’t think so or we would have predicted as such! But it could happen).
Best Documentary Feature
- American Factory
- The Cave
- The Edge of Democracy
- For Sama
- Honeyland
Winner: American Factory
Should Win: For Sama. There really are no losers this year (except for Apollo 11, which failed to score a nod) in this category as each documentary film hit us over the head in the best of ways and spotlighted an issue or a landscape in dire need of global attention. American Factory hit home with its US-centric friendly themes of revitalizing the manufacturing jobs that have left our shores in droves these last few decades and how a Chinese company sought to revitalize an Ohio factory and sought to rev up the assembly line to manufacture car glass. Meanwhile, the most powerful film of the nominees, with its electric emotive energy (something that I think should rule the day in this category) is For Sama. Ithad us in tears. The flick also spawned a feeling of helplessness in terms of how to respond to the plight of Syrians caught in the crossfire of a war that is hurting Syria’s women and youngest souls the most viciously. By the closing credits, For Sama will innately drive its viewers to a call to action—whether its donating to the Red Cross or calling our representatives to stress the need for our government to intervene in this war that seems to know no end.
Best Documentary – Short Subject
- In the Absence
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
- Life Overtakes Me
- St. Louis Superman
- Walk Run Cha-Cha
Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Should Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) has so many boxes that get checked, it’s no surprise it’s the front-runner to win Oscar gold this Sunday evening. It tells the harrowing tale of surviving in a war zone, it is female-centric and its inspiring. The film was shot in Afghanistan and brilliantly chronicles how merely a few years ago when the Taliban were in power, girls were to be seen (albeit completely covered up) and not heard and here in Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) young women are strapping on their helmets and skateboarding. It’s a powerful image in a powerful short.
Best Animated Feature Film
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
- I Lost My Body
- Klaus
- Missing Link
- Toy Story 4
Winner: Toy Story 4
Should win: Missing Link shocked everyone when it won the Golden Globe in this category and Klaus just scored the BAFTA, making the perceived lock of Toy Story 4 seem a bit shaky. But when all is said and done, the highest grossing film on this list will also should add “Oscar winner” to its many accomplishments as Disney/Pixar will celebrate yet another victory. Worth mentioning when predicting this category: There have been only two non-Disney/Pixar films that have scored the Best Animated Feature Oscar since 2007. 2020 will continue that trend with the animation house winning once again.
Best Film Editing
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Parasite
Winner: Ford v Ferrari
Should win: Ford v Ferrari deserves the Oscar for playing its part in crafting the most realistic car racing scenes ever captured in the cinema. Can you imagine the thrills of that last race in particular, the 24 hours of Le Mans, if not for the impeccable work of James Mangold’s editors. If there is an upset here, it will come from Parasite. That film crackled with life and suspense, and that firmly is a result of some top-tier editing. In the end though, giving the Oscar to the Ford v Ferrari team is a terrific way of honoring one of the most brilliantly crafted pictures of the year that will largely be shut out of every other category (including Best Picture, which it should be thrilled it even scored that coveted and rarely used ninth spot).
Best Cinematography
- The Irishman
- Joker
- The Lighthouse
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Winner: 1917
Should Win: Cinematographer extraordinaire Roger Deakins will go from a multitude of nominations and no wins to two wins in the last three years! That “one-shot” method of shooting 1917,with Sam Mendes at the helm, put a whole lot of pressure on the DP and the director to orchestrate the shooting schedule methodically. You notice that the film didn’t earn an editing nomination and that is likely due to the fact that the Academy collective figured that it didn’t take much editing if the film is one continuous shot. Of course, that is not the case. But one cannot change the nominee list now and one way to reward the editing aspect of the filming of 1917 is to honor its cinematographer. That is exactly what will occur.
Best Production Design
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
Winner: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood did something extraordinary with its production design. It turned back the clock on the decidedly modern Tinsel Town roadways and establishments from 2019 to 1969. It was stunning. It wasn’t simply the streets and storefronts that turned themselves over to the time when the hippies were making inroads and old school stalwarts (like Leonardo DiCaprio’s Rick Dalton) sought to keep things the way they were. The inside of Dalton’s home, for example, is proof positive that the attention to detail on Tarantino’s set was unmatched by any film put out in 2019. I would even venture to argue that it may be the best production design of the last decade! So yeah, I’m confident QT’s production designer better get their speech together for Sunday night.
Best Costume Design
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Winner: Traditionally, the Academy loves to give this Oscar to the film that captures the threads of a film from a long ago era. Seeing as the only one on this nominee list that fits that descriptor is Little Women, look for Greta Gerwig’s film to win Best Costume Design in a landslide.
Should Win: Little Women … even though the costumes of QT’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood were wildly original. So often, costume designers are given the time period of the sixties and we get a flood of tie-dyes, bell bottoms and frayed everything. Not on OUATIH. Those are some seriously aesthetically awesome threads that DiCaprio, Pitt and Robbie got to sport. But it will be hard to beat the period piece costuming that was as gorgeous as the New England landscape.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
- Bombshell
- Joker
- Judy
- Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
- 1917
Winner: Bombshell
Should Win: This is a case of power in numbers. See, the makeup and hairstylists on Joker really had one major character to push the envelope. Same can be said for Judy. Look at what the makeup and hairstyling team of Bombshell had to accomplish. What they achieved with Charlize Theron alone should warrant Bombshell the Oscar in Best Makeup & Hairstyling. She was completely transformed into Megyn Kelly in a manner that was not the least bit distracting to the audience. It was a marvel of movie magic. Nicole Kidman’s transformation to Gretchen Carlson was also quite brilliant and don’t get me started on the Oscar worthy work that was done on John Lithgow to turn one of the sweetest men in Hollywood into one of the smarmiest for his take on Roger Ailes.
Best Visual Effects
- Avengers: Endgame
- The Irishman
- The Lion King
- 1917
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Winner: Avengers: Endgame
Should Win: If you haven’t been paying attention to the movie news of the last year, one might wonder why Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman is on this list. After what was achieved de-aging the cast over decades, that nod is completely and utterly earned and warranted. But it won’t win. This race will come down to the concluding chapters of Star Wars and Avengers. Given the complex challenges that were thrust upon the Industrial Light and Magic team for both films, it will be a supreme challenge for voters to choose the winner. Either one would be worthy, but there is something about the vast myriad of effects shots in the final Avengers flick—from creating actual characters, from Thanos to Groot and Rocket—to landscapes that are completely crafted on a computer (that final battle sequence where everyone comes together in the most triumphant of ways), look for Avengers: Endgame to end its seismic pop culture run with a trophy that some say looks a bit like Thanos’ head. Just sayin’.
Best Original Score
- Joker
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- 1917
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Winner: Joker
Should Win: Joker has a score that is pitch-perfect for the narrative and the visuals that populate your screen. The composer, Hildur Guðnadóttir, impeccably captured the nuanced musical counterpart to Todd Phillips’ visionary palette. The Icelandic music maven added layers to the emotive power of Phillips visual cornucopia that is Gotham at the dawn of the 80s. It would have been tempting to go synth for Guðnadóttir, given the sonic succulence of that particular period of time. Instead, she chose an orchestral-centric score that expresses so much musically that mirrors what soon-to-be-Oscar winner Phoenix expresses with his face.
Best Original Song
- “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” – Toy Story 4
- “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – Rocketman
- “I’m Standing with You” – Breakthrough
- “Into the Unknown” – Frozen II
- “Stand Up” – Harriet
Winner: (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again from Rocketman
Should Win: Glasgow from Wild Rose … wait, what? I know, the Jessie Buckley sang tune (written by Mary Steenburgen) wasn’t even nominated. It, for me, is the best song of the entire year from a film. But alas, choosing from the quintet of tracks that were nominated, Into the Unknown from Frozen II should be our winner. It’s a pitch perfect follow-up to Let it Go and its pop culture XX from 2013. That track transcended film and became an anthem for little girls in a way that we haven’t seen in a long time. Sadly, Into the Unknown hasn’t had that same kind of effect. That is unfortunate, especially because it is a richer, more complex song whose message goes deeper than simply letting expectations go. Sentimentality is going to rule the day as Elton John and his writing partner, Bernie Taupin, will take the stage to accept their Best Original Song Oscar and in the process make history. With an absence of nominations in many other categories, Rocketman was robbed and this is a fantastic way to make things right for the Paramount biopic of one of pop music’s greatest songwriting duos.
Best Sound Editing
- Ford v Ferrari
- Joker
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Winner: 1917
Should Win: 1917
Best Sound Mixing
- Ad Astra
- Ford v Ferrari
- Joker
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Winner: 1917
Should win: 1917 … in the past one of these “Sound” categories would traditionally go to a musically-driven feature and the other would be the action movie or preferably, war flick. This year, with all the accolades that is being heaped on 1917, I see a sweep of the sound mixing/sound editing categories for the Mendes film.
Best Live-Action Short Film
- Brotherhood
- Nefta Football Club
- The Neighbors’ Window
- Saria
- A Sister
Winner: Brotherhood
Should Win: There is something special about what Canadian filmmaker Meryam Joobeu gave viewers with the gift that is her film, Brotherhood. It finds a Tunisian man who returns home after fighting as a member of ISIS. The home front serves as a battlefield as he and his father grapple over a multitude of issues. This is the type of film that the Academy can proudly hold up as just one example of why 2019 was a cinematic year to remember.
Best Animated Short Film
- Dcera (Daughter)
- Hair Love
- Kitbull
- Memorable
- Sister
Winner: Hair Love
Should Win: Hair Love is told from the most endearing of places. Matthew Cherry’s film chronicles a Black father and his little girl. It’s all about the titular subject matter—how dad and daughter bond over her epic daily hair undertaking will make your heart shine bright. The one animated short film that I could see challenge Hair Love is Kitbull with its tale of a spooked feral cat and how its life improves with the simple act of making a friend.