February 9 will be an incredibly special day for a group of actors, who will now add the moniker Oscar winner in front of their given names. That’s right … the Academy Awards are set to be handed out and The Movie Mensch’s Oscar Watch is set to make some predictions with the big four acting categories.
The thing is, it’s been a disturbing trend over these last few years as the proliferation of awards shows has permeated Hollywood’s favorite time of year—award season. What it has caused is the removal of practically any kind of suspense when it comes to the Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress awards. Now I feel as much as a Svengali as I once did, at least when it comes to these Fab Four categories.
I have been predicting the Oscars since I was 14 years old, many decades ago and it is still one of the great joys. Stay with The Movie Mensch for a full on prediction of every single category that can help you with your Oscar pools as we progress closer to the big show.
For now, let’s dive into the acting categories a little differently than I will approach the other awards doled out on February 9. For this little prediction piece, we will break it down into “who will win” and “who should win.” Will they be one and the same? Read on …
Best Actor
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story
- Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
- Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker—is there any question at this point after he has cleaned up every single pre-Oscar honor?
Who should win: Honestly, this is a category where who will and who should is one and the same. Did you watch Joker? That was a seismic performance that was beyond electric. Phoenix has always been one of his generation’s finest, and his work in Todd Phillips’ chilling account of the rise of Joker is nothing short of a revelation. If there is anyone else who deserves it in this category it is Driver for Marriage Story. That blowout fight in his densely decorated apartment near the end of Noah Baumbach’s emotively explosive tale alone shows why the man who played Kylo Ren deserves an Oscar.
Best Actress
- Renee Zellweger – Judy
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell
- Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Who will win: Renee Zellweger for Judy. It’s basically been a coronation for the actress since it was even announced that she would be playing the legend Judy Garland. Then, folks saw the picture and it was a stunning turn, for that there is no arguing. But, is it the best performance of the year by an actress? The Academy sure thinks so.
Who Should win: Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story. What Johansson did was such a complicated, nuanced performance that took what her screenplay gave her and added layers upon layers of human emotive power the likes of which we haven’t seen this year … except from her co-star, Driver! The arc her character possesses is so much richer than what Zellweger was given for Judy. Yes, the biopic actress brings it with tragic aplomb. But there is something about Johansson and her journey from doting wife to independent scorned woman that is nothing short of cinematic bliss.
Best Supporting Actor
- Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Joe Pesci – The Irishman
- Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
- Al Pacino – The Irishman
- Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Who will win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Who should win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. What the veteran actor brings to the screen is a pitch perfect turn as the stunt double/assistant for a fading movie and television star (Leonardo DiCaprio). It is unlike anything we have ever seen from Pitt. There is a comfortable ease to his turn as Cliff Booth that is so incredibly appealing beyond simply the actor’s dashing good looks. He is an everyman, living in a world where everything seems extraordinary. Most of all, he is the best kind of friend to Rick Dalton (DiCaprio) that all of us wish we had.
Best Supporting Actress
- Laura Dern – Marriage Story
- Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
- Margot Robbie – Bombshell
- Florence Pugh – Little Women
- Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
Who will win: Laura Dern in Marriage Story is a lock. She’s a great actress and I have loved her work since the 80s and Smooth Talk. Dern is also Hollywood royalty and a beloved soul who everyone in town just adores. This is one of those times that it is “her turn” and it has been as much of a coronation for Dern as it has been for Zellweger.
Who should win: There is someone who actually turned in a performance that was slightly more powerful and ever more important to the fabric of the movie she inhabited and that would be Bates in Richard Jewell. Her turn as the titular soul’s mother is heartbreaking and inspiring. As a parent, one can only imagine the hell she goes through as her heroic son is dragged through the government sanctioned and media sponsored sludge. The actress captures that so brilliantly painful, and in a manner that makes us want to dive through the screen and give her (and her son) a huge hug.