It’s firmly Oscar season, so let the pontificating proliferate. For our first insight/prediction Oscar Watch column, we turn our attention to the Best Actor category and like it is every year because let’s be honest, there are more better roles for men than women in Hollywood—although the gap is closing (just not quickly enough!). The Movie Mensch looks at the top 20 lead male performances of 2019. We also accesses their odds for hearing their name called when the nominations are revealed on January 13, 2020.
So, without further ado, here’s the 20 for ’20 with the best shot at earning a nomination for Best Actor.
And the nominees could be …
Who? Robert De Niro
What? The Irishman
Why? Did you watch the thing? Martin Scorsese and De Niro hook up for their eighth time around a movie set. The already has two Oscars thespian disappeared into Frank Sheeran and faced additional challenges beyond what he already pressures himself to achieve. Thanks to de-aging tech, De Niro had to tackle a character and realistically present this focus of a three-and-a-half-hour epic over decades from Frank’s twenties through his eighties.
Chances: 99% Lock
Who? Joaquin Phoenix
What? Joker
Why? In a completely transformative role, Phoenix drowned as Arthur Fleck, who over the course of Todd Phillips’ masterwork, Joker, evolves into the iconic villain. Thanks to the three-time Oscar nominee, and the Oscar winning performance of Heath Ledger 10 years years ago, it is safe to say that this bad guy transcends comic books at this point. What Phoenix did with the character was completely different. This was an origins story. Everything that happened to Fleck, along the way through Phillips’ Joker,is what makes this villain one that is among the greatest Hollywood has ever captured. Think about that. What is expected of Phoenix in order to achieve that character “mission statement” is otherworldly. Only someone of his supreme talent could possibly have looked at the script and even considered doing it without any apprehension to falling on one’s face in failure. It is uncanny what Phoenix did. Not only is it a 100-percent certainty that he will be nominated, if I had to bet on someone in any category to win at this early moment—it would be him.
Chances: 100% Lock
Who? Leonardo DiCaprio
What? Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Why? In Quentin Tarantino’s study of a Tinsel Town in transit, DiCaprio is the old guard of Hollywood that is amuck in hippie alterations to a community he adores. He may be old school, but Rick Dalton is not going to give up his seat at the stardom table without a fight and that aspect of his turn arrives in some seriously surprising ways. It is a commanding performance and seamlessly fits into his resume of greatness.
Chances: A 95% lock
Who? Eddie Murphy
What? Dolemite Is My Name
Why? What Murphy does in the true story-comedy is transformative. Sure, the production design, costumes and sets had us feeling funky, but the moment the superstar struts into Dolemite Is My Name, it was like a well-acted time machine had taken us back to the 70s in the most pristine and welcomed way.
Chances: Sadly, I’d put Murphy’s chances of scoring a nod at 50/50. It pains me to write that, but sadly his momentum seems to be shifting. Perhaps some year-end lists that will undoubtedly be produced will remind journalists, and thus voting members, how utterly sensational not only how Murphy was, but how pitch perfect, entertaining and enlightening the entire Dolemite Is My Name experience is. That is his name and messing MFs up his most certainly his game.
Who? Not Tom Hanks
What? A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Why? It’s a supporting role! Sure, it’s the Mister Rogers movie…is what countless folks are calling it. Heck, all you have to say is “I’m seeing the Mister Rogers movie” and everyone will know you’re talking about A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. This is still Matthew Rhys’ film as he is in most every scene and it is his story that draws us in to the world of Fred Rogers and thus sheds light on his seismic impact on society. Will Hanks score a Supporting Actor nod? Yes, but that’s another Oscar Watch column!
Chances: 0%!
Who? Timothee Chalamet
What? The King
Why? After turning in a performance that rivaled what Edward Norton did with Primal Fear—in terms of announcing your gifts to the world—whatever Timothee Chalamet did next would have our attention. A couple of films after Call Me By Your Name he makes quite the splash portraying a young Henry V right after he puts that crown on his head for the first time. It is an impressive turn as the actor impeccably captures the 15th century English leader from angles not necessarily explored previously on the screen. Witnessing the character go from (somewhat) carefree prince to stressed-out regal leader serves as further proof that this kid is a once in a generation talent.
Chances: He’s got a lot of Oscar opps coming in the decades ahead. So, even though he turned in an Oscar worthy performance in The King, Chalamet’s odds of getting his second nod is about 30%.
Who? Daniel Kaluuya
What? Queen & Slim
Why? The Get Out star (who earned a nod for that role) further illustrates his command of the screen with Queen & Slim. What makes his performance in this flick so special is that he is the rare performer who can portray a soul who does something heinous, yet we pull for him completely. Of course, you must see the stunning film to understand, but Kaluuya’s Slim shoots a cop after a routine traffic stop went south. It was self-defense, but …
Chances: 20%, just too much competition this year.
Who? Taron Egerton
What? Rocketman
Why? If they gave Rami Malek a golden statue for portraying Freddie Mercury, then surely with what we saw from Taron Egerton as he tackled Elton John, it must be a lock for the Brit to win, no? Unfortunately, we’re not sold that Egerton will even be nominated. There is so much competition this year. Egerton deserves it, for that there is no question. He sang John’s tunes. He danced with the masses and inhabited a scarred soul that turned to self-medication to numb those childhood wounds. Rocketman does a lot of things right, and one of the richest aspects of his performance is how he captured all the emotive landscape of being an addict who seeks help and what that sounds like, looks like and most importantly—feels like.
Chances: 70%–and that is on the optimistic side.
Who? Kelvin Harrison Jr.
What? Waves
Why? He is a revelation and Oscar likes to nominate and award actors and actresses who take and opportunity and just crush it. The thing is, the riveting drama Waves features Harrison as a son navigating his family’s dynamic and society’s expectations. Given that he also could be considered for Oscar gold with his explosive turn in Luce, the man’s chances at being nominated for an Oscar at all will likely be split by a voting block seeking to reward him, but unconsciously splitting the vote between Luce and Waves.
Chances: 40%
Who? Paul Walter Hauser
What? Richard Jewell
Why? There are performances that permeate your soul and move you in ways that thoughts as innocently strange as, “I just want to hug Richard Jewell” become uttered. This is exactly what occurs after watching Clint Eastwood’s true tale that bears his moniker. The hero of the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta—he discovered a bomb that could have easily killed more than the two who perished and most definitely would have maimed much more than those who were injured when a bomb went off in Centennial Park as the Olympic Games commenced. I, Tonya star Hauser was an impeccable choice to dive into the George native who became a national pariah as quickly as he was lauded a hero when the media and the government both decided that Jewell knew where the bomb was because he planted it.
Chances: 80%, Eastwood has a long history of directing roles that get Oscar’s attention and the fact that it was partially the media that put the hero in the villain column, having Hauser be nominated would be one way to play a part in mending that wound.
Who? Jonathan Pryce
What? The Two Popes
Why? Bringing Pope Francis to life could not have been an easy endeavor, given that he is currently the leader of the Catholic Church and one of the most famous folks on the entire planet. But not every actor has the acting toolbox that Pryce possesses. What Pope Francis brought to the position was unlike anything that came before and capturing that essence was done with such a command we fully expect that the English actor’s name to be firmly in the discussion for a Best Actor nomination. His chances aren’t high, but he’s in the ballpark and once in the ballpark, anything can happen.
Chances: 60%
Who? Mark Ruffalo
What? Dark Waters
Why? Before Ruffalo was Bruce Banner and The Hulk and part of a multi-billion-dollar franchise, he was widely known as an independent film favorite. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that he dazzles so with his true tale Dark Waters. The little people against the big bad corporations is nothing new for Oscar bait, i.e. Erin Brockovich. And like that Academy Award winner (for Julia Roberts in the title role), this lawyer (Ruffalo) and his small town clients against DuPont Chemical achieves a similar cheer for the underdog factor. Whereas Roberts was in your face and explosive, Ruffalo portrays his character more reserved and in the process allows the focus to be on the content of his arguments and as such, it was an acting choice that pays off by the end. The thing is you have to trudge through some long exposition and story set-up that I think hurts Ruffalo’s chances at a nod. I’m sure the Academy would adore a chance to reward the actor for his return to “meaningful” work after having a blast embodying the green hero.
Chances: 40%
Who? Robert Pattinson
What? The Lighthouse
Why? Leaving the theater after experiencing The Lighthouse, I felt there was no way that Pattinson would not score an Oscar nod for his stunning portrayal of madness and melancholy in the black and white film about two keepers of the titular light. He and co-star Willem Dafoe put on a clinic. Pattinson might suffer from the classic “he’s young and will surely be in the consideration again” syndrome. I’m just happy for the guy after toiling for years as Edward in the Twilight movies, he took firm control of his career and has made some bold choices since leaving the vampire YA series. One of those is The Lighthouse and is firmly the type of film and work that will earn him that Oscar nod one day. Just not this day.
Chances: 20%
Who? Adam Sandler
What? Uncut Gems
Why? There is nothing more this Oscar season I would treasure than if the Saturday Night Live alumnus scored an Academy Award nomination. The man who was the butt of jokes a few years back when emails from Sony Pictures were leaked during the North Korean rumored hack that almost leveled the studio, was a human hot potato. No one wanted him. Netflix gladly signed the comic to a multi-picture deal, and it was freeing for him. He was able to tackle projects (and hire his famous friends) that were close to his heart and also stories that are firmly “Sandler cinema,” but at the same time may have stretched that envelope a bit. It made him take his craft more seriously than he has … probably ever. One of the benefits of that journey was scoring the lead part in the Safdie brothers jaw-dropper of power, Uncut Gems. It is impossible to think of anyone else being able to do what Sandler did in the part of a gambler with a stroke of bad luck that has, or so it appears, caught up with him. Thing is, don’t count his character out. He’s got a plan for everything and in the hands of Sandler, this role and this film essentially explodes off the screen. Again, it’s a crowded field, but somehow there has to be room made for the comic. It would be historic and the most extraordinary of comeback stories if there ever was one.
Chances: My heart tells me 75%, my head says more like 35%.
Who? Daniel Craig
What? Knives Out
Why? Because what the James Bond actor did with his role as a private detective hired by someone mysterious in this murder mystery who-done-it from writer-director Rian Johnson, that’s why. His southern fried PI, first of all has the most joyous and insanely unique accents. Unlike many actors who cannot seem to keep an accent right in the wheelhouse for the entire two-hours of a film, Craig is never for one second not Detective Benoit Blanc. It’s stunning. He’s also the key to the entire film! The Academy loves it when an actor takes a chance that could have ended with egg all over his or her face. When the guy, who we have adored as James Bond for years now, turns up in a riveting murder mystery in a persona that is beyond unique—and he utterly nails it—that is a huge attention getter in awards circles. Will it be enough … maybe. He’ll be right on the edge if he gets in, and also, if he doesn’t.
Chances: 50/50
Who? Michael B. Jordan
What? Just Mercy
Why? Tackling the real life civil rights defense attorney extraordinaire, Bryan Stevenson, required an actor with a true knack for equal amounts of subtlety and sensationalism. That’s Jordan. He’s dazzled in HBO’s The Wire, and immediately I kept an eye on this young man. When he blew us away in Fruitvale Station, it was an Oscar worthy hurricane of a performance. Then, he was an enormous part of why Creed was so well received and his thespian volley with his co-star was one of the main reasons that Sylvester Stallone earned a Best Supporting Actor nomination. Will Jordan hear his name for Best Actor when nods are handed out in January? He and Jamie Foxx go toe-to-toe and both are continually Oscar worthy. The issue here is will enough members see the film before votes are due. I think Just Mercy will be one of those screeners that the members say they will get to, but sadly won’t until their minds were already collectively been made up with whom the five spots for the competitive category will be.
Chances: Sadly, wish there were 10 spots for reasons like Jordan. There are not, alas, so put his chances at 30%.
Who? Adam Driver
What? Marriage Story
Why? A large part of the reason why Marriage Story is so tragic is what Driver delivers as Charlie. He and Scarlett Johansson’s Nicole are getting a divorce and although their young son never is privy (thankfully) to the piercing emotive damage each is doing to the other, it breaks our hearts witnessing two formerly in love souls’ marriage break down right in front of us. How Driver goes from just trying to get along to matching Johansson’s powerful attorney and everywhere in between is further proof that he is one of the finest actors working today of any generation. There is a scene where he tackles a song, a la Karaoke, that left much of my screening’s audience a puddle of tears. Both parties have a hand in why this Marriage Story falls apart, but through Driver’s characterization, it is as if we are pulling for him to get what he wants in the divorce because he is just one of those people who one wishes the moon for.
Chances: 100% Lock!
Who? Matt Damon
What? Ford v. Ferrari
Why? His turn as legendary car designer Carroll Shelby is one of those audience experiences where a character grabs you by the lapels the moment they arrive on the screen and never lets you go, even after the credits roll. That’s an incredible thing to attribute to Damon and his take as Shelby, given that his partner in crime in this tantalizing and thrilling true tale is Oscar winner Christian Bale. Damon is already an Oscar winner for his screenplay (with buddy Ben Affleck on Good Will Hunting), but it will be nice to see him lauded for his work in front of the camera with James Mangold’s terrific Ford v. Ferrari.
Chances: 65%
Who? Antonio Banderas
What? Pain & Glory
Why? Banderas has always been one of the greatest Spanish exports to enlighten Hollywood with his golden smile and talent. Given the right role, there is little doubt that he could add the descriptor “Oscar winner” to the front of his name one of these days. That day could be now, as his turn in Pain & Glory is about as expressive as the veteran actor has ever been in a role.
Chances: 75%
Who? Christian Bale
What? Ford v. Ferrari
Why? Damon’s other half in Ford v. Ferrari will be battling his co-star and several other actors to see if he’s a 2020 Oscar nominee. Could he be hurt by the prevailing belief that, although sensational, Bale was portraying a version of parts that Bale has been tackling for years? Maybe, but the thing is the Academy adores him and has nominated him four times and of course gave him the Best Supporting Actor in 2011 for The Fighter. This year, a nod will likely be elusive.
Chances: 40%
Who? Matthew Rhys
What? A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Why? The fact that Rhys will likely be ignored for a Best Actor nomination embodies one of my biggest Oscar pet peeves. There is no question that Tom Hanks will receive a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his role as Fred Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. First of all, the flick is Rhys’ as he’s in almost every scene and it is his story that is being told. He is literally being supported by Rogers in ways that are too long to explain here. Yet, Hanks will score a nod and Rhys will not. Does the Academy think that Hanks achieved his excellence in a vacuum? Hardly! His tête-à-tête with Rhys is pure magic and they will likely only see half of it. One day, Rhys, one day you will not only be nominated for an Oscar … but you will win.
Chances: 0%
