With 14 Academy Award nominations, one would think that this year’s Oscars are going to be all about La La Land. Yes, that is kind of true. But, there are 24 total awards given out on February 28, so that means 10 other categories where the words La La Land will not be uttered by the Oscar presenter. Also, there are a few categories where some other folks are going to stealing that musical Hollywood love letter’s thunder.
La La Land will win a lot. Will it set a record? Nope, and that will be because several of its categories find other stronger nominees.
Well, which ones? The Movie Mensch has had an 85-plus percent prediction rate for the Oscars over the last 10 years, so grab your pen and paper and get ready to make your mark in your office Oscar pool.
Without further ado, here are our rock-solid predictions of all 24 Academy Awards Categories…
Best Picture
- La La Land
- Moonlight
- Manchester by the Sea
- Arrival
- Lion
- Hidden Figures
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Fences
Who will win: La La Land
Why? Hollywood adores rewarding itself, which is exactly why The Artist won in this category a few years ago. Plus, when a film sets a record like this one did by scoring 14 nominations, there is no way that it does not add up to a Best Picture victory at the end of the evening. End of story… there is just no way this film does not win. It doesn’t hurt that it is one of the best pictures of the year… although if we were voting, we’d be casting our ballot for Hidden Figures. That is the type of film that audiences adore (i.e., it’s a huge hit). It’s an important film. It’s timely. And after #oscarssowhite, it seems like a slam dunk. But alas, it’s hard to stop a runaway train and this year, Hollywood has gone gaga for La La.
Best Director
- Damien Chazelle – La La Land
- Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
- Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
- Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
- Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Who will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Why? Oscar has a long history of awarding Best Director and Best Picture to the same film. But, of late, that has not been the case. It has been split. There is something about this year and La La Land specifically that finds us coming back to that director-picture winning tandem. As Chazelle’s film is so his, from its conception to its execution, we’d be hard-pressed to find the Academy not awarding its top prize to the movie without also honoring the man who is largely responsible for it even existing.
Best Actress
- Emma Stone – La La Land
- Natalie Portman – Jackie
- Isabelle Huppert – Elle
- Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
- Ruth Negga – Loving
Who will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Why? Much as Jennifer Hudson and Anne Hathaway did before, when they finished singing the heck out of their songs in their Oscar-winning roles, audiences everywhere said, “Oh, just give them the Academy Award,” the same was said for Emma Stone when she completed her singing moment in La La Land with Audition. Yet, her performance was so much more than that moment. So, no question here. Stone is a lock to sing her way into Oscar history.
Best Actor
- Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
- Denzel Washington – Fences
- Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
- Ryan Gosling – La La Land
- Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Who will win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Why? Until yesterday, we truly believed that Casey Affleck was going to win for Manchester by the Sea. Why? Because he deserved it. He delivered what was one of the best and most gut-wrenching performances we’ve seen by any actor in any movie in the last several years! Yet, he will not win. After scoring an upset at the SAG Awards, the front-runner became Washington. We refused to believe it. But, it’s hard to ignore — the tide has turned. Although we are huge fans of Affleck’s work in his film, we are also pleased that the Academy has done something that they usually do not do. It drives us nuts when they award a performer in an acting category and don’t reward their scene partner, especially in a film like Fences where there is no way one actor achieved what they did without the dance partner that is their co-star. The fact that both Washington and Davis win, for us as a longtime follower of the Academy Awards, does warm our heart. That is our consolation prize for Affleck being denied what he deserves.
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis – Fences
- Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
- Naomie Harris – Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman – Lion
- Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Who will win: Viola Davis, Fences
Why? There have never been such firm sure things in life as there is that Davis will win her first Oscar for Fences. We’d like to leave it at that, but just bear with us for a second. There is no way that Davis is a Supporting Actress in this film. She and Washington make a 1-2 punch. Each are a lead! Perhaps Paramount felt they could easily get her the golden trophy in the Supporting Actress category instead of battling the steaming train that is La La Land and Stone? They should have had a little faith in what Davis did in that stunning performance in Fences. We think she would have upset Stone, but alas, that is neither here nor there.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
- Dev Patel – Lion
- Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
- Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
Who will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Why? Ali will be making that iconic walk up to the Dolby Theater stage to collect his first Oscar for his mesmerizing work in Moonlight. He’s hardly in that movie, but what he did was stunning. His work in the first part of the film shadows the entire rest of the tale and it is because of that strength that he will be awarded.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
- Arrival – Eric Heisserer
- Lion – Luke Davies
- Fences – August Wilson
- Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi
Who will win: Moonlight
Why? Although Arrival, for many, should be the winner in this category, look for this Oscar to go to the stellar work that Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney did with Moonlight. It’s not just about getting more diversity on that Oscar stage making acceptance speeches. The scope of Jenkins and McCraney’s film is so heartfelt and emotive that it truly deserves its spotlight on February 26.
Best Original Screenplay
- La La Land – Damien Chazelle
- Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
- Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
- The Lobster – Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos
- 20th Century Women – Mike Mills
Who will win: Manchester by the Sea
Why? Manchester by the Sea is the type of screenplay that they are (already) teaching in screenplay classes. If the written word can be seen as a work of art, Lonergan’s prose is hang it in a gallery for people to learn from it for years worthy.
Best Cinematography
- Linus Sandgren – La La Land
- Bradford Young – Arrival
- Greig Fraser – Lion
- James Laxton – Moonlight
- Rodrigo Prieto – Silence
Who will win: La La Land
Why? Have you seen La La Land? It’s beautiful and does something incredible with the city of Los Angeles. I live here and it’s not like the City of Angels is the most breathtaking in terms of having buildings and concrete jungle scream glorious gorgeousness. But what they did with La La Land on the big screen is a love letter to my home that does bring out its best color hues and the way it was shot is testament to finding beauty in the most unlikely of places.
Best Animated Feature
- Zootopia
- Moana
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- The Red Turtle
- My Life as a Zucchini
Who will win: Zootopia
Why? Zootopia deserves to win this category because first and foremost, it is the Best Animated Feature. But, we were disappointed (it was one of our Oscar nominations snubs and surprises) that it was not also nominated for Best Picture. It’s that good. In this political era where what makes us different is dividing us (or at least our government is pushing for that), what a fantastic tale of animals from all walks of life finding a way to get along and build a city that resembles that fabled City on the Hill.
Best Documentary Feature
- O.J.: Made in America
- 13th
- I Am Not Your Negro
- Fire at Sea
- Life, Animated
Who will win: O.J.: Made in America
Why? Like Zootopia before, the film that will win this category on Oscar night should also be one considered for Best Picture of the Year. O.J.: Made in America is a jaw-dropping look at race, celebrity and justice in America and is as timely as ever… even though it looks at a trial that is over two decades old. What’s interesting is this is one of the most strong categories of the night and we’d be happy if any of these films won, particularly 13th and I Am Not Your Negro.
Best Foreign Language Film
- Tanna – Australia
- Land of Mine – Denmark
- Toni Erdmann – Germany
- The Salesman – Iran
- A Man Called Ove – Sweden
Who will win: The Salesman
Why? Whether it is the “Best” Foreign Language Film or not, The Salesman from Iran will be winning itself the Oscar this Sunday. The Academy has a chance to make a political statement and what better one to make than a physical manifestation of a President Trump Executive Order that has kept the director of this film from being able to pick up his Oscar. If any of the other films have a chance, look for Toni Erdmann to win. For many people, that is the best movie of the year — from any country, including ours!
Best Original Song
- Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
- City of Stars – La La Land
- How Far I’ll Go – Moana
- Can’t Stop the Feeling – Trolls
- The Empty Chair – Jim: The James Foley Story
Who will win: City of Stars – La La Land
Why? It’s hard to think about La La Land and not think about the song City of Stars. They’re inseparable. Although we think that Audition is a much more deserving track for this honor and the inspiring song from Moana gives us goosebumps, City of Stars will win.
Best Original Score
- La La Land
- Lion
- Moonlight
- Jackie
- Passengers
Who will win: La La Land
Why? La La Land wins Best Picture, and it is a musical. In what world does it not score for Best Original Score? In no world, that’s where!
Best Film Editing
- La La Land
- Moonlight
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Arrival
- Hell or High Water
Who will win: La La Land
Why? La la Land is not only a triumph of storytelling, acting, singing and dancing, it is a feat of excellence that culminated in the editing room. For that stunning achievement, it wins.
Best Visual Effects
- Deepwater Horizon
- The Jungle Book
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
- Doctor Strange
- Kubo and the Two Strings
Who will win: The Jungle Book
Why? Although this category tends to usually go to sci-fi films, look for this year’s award to celebrate what was achieved in The Jungle Book. How real did those animals look in Jon Favreau’s masterpiece? It is an enormous achievement that pushed the envelope of the science of visual effects and the Academy loves to award that.
Best Costume Design
- Allied
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- Jackie
- La La Land
Who will win: La La Land
Why? Although there is a late surge that appears to think the swing has gone to Jackie to win this category, we are still sticking with the mesmerizing costumes from La La Land to saunter its way to a win. The costumes of La La Land were timeless, yet modern, and also somehow managed to give us a classic musical from the ’50s feel. Incredible. Just incredible.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Suicide Squad
- A Man Called Ove
- Star Trek Beyond
Who will win: Star Trek Beyond
Why? This is possibly the weakest of all the 24 categories at the Academy Awards. Of the thousands of films that were released in 2016, only three gave us makeup and hairstyling worthy of a nomination? That being said, of the three nominated, Star Trek Beyond achieved the Best Makeup and Hairstyling.
Best Production Design
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Hail, Caesar!
- La La Land
- Arrival
- Passengers
Who will win: La La Land
Why? For the same reasons it will win for Best Cinematography, La La Land will achieve a victory in Best Production Design.
Best Sound Editing
- Arrival
- Deepwater Horizion
- Hacksaw Ridge
- La La Land
- Sully
Who will win: Hacksaw Ridge
Why? War movies usually win big in this category and what was achieved in Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge is beyond astounding in terms of its sound editing.
Best Sound Mixing
- Arrival
- Hacksaw Ridge
- La La Land
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
- 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Who will win: La La Land
Why? Like war movies usually winning for sound editing, musicals are usually honored for sound mixing. Given that La La Land is on quite a roll this year, look for the musical to add another golden statue to its haul.
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
- Extremis
- 4.1 Miles
- Joe’s Violin
- The White Helmets
- Watani: My Homeland
Who will win: Joe’s Violin
Why? There are three Syrian refugee short docs up for this award and as much as they deserve the spotlight, we feel they will end up splitting the vote. That will open the victory for Joe’s Violin. It’s the story of a Holocaust survivor who gives his beloved instrument to a poor child in the Bronx, USA. Yes, Oscar does love Holocaust stories and I would not bet against this one.
Best Short Film (Animated)
- Pearl
- Pear and Cider Cigarettes
- Piper
- Blind Vaysha
- Borrowed Time
Who will win: Piper
Why? Pixar is missing from this year’s Best Animated Feature list, so look for their Piper to win for Best Short Film (Animated). That is not the only reason why, of course, it is a charming and delightful story full of heart, hope and one that leaves you with a smile on your face that might not go away for days.
Best Short Film (Live Action)
- Ennemis Interieurs
- Timecode
- Silent Nights
- La Femme et la TGV
- Sing
Who will win: Ennemis Interieurs
Why? Talk about timely! The French story about an interrogation of a terrorist hits all the right notes during this time where our headlines are dominated by fears of terrorism.