Oscar Watch 2017: Predicting the Big Five… Who Scores a Nod?


The Academy Award nominations are due to be announced on Tuesday, January 24 over at the Oscar headquarters. The Movie Mensch’s Oscar Watch has zeroed in on the top five categories to make its surefire predictions — Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.

We’ll find out well we do on Tuesday morning at the crack of dawn!

But below I list my predictions, and why each choice was chosen. Also included in this edition of the Award Season stalwart, Oscar Watch, is some choices I’d love to see included in the nominations, that likely will not get their name called on January 24.

So, without further ado… let’s start with the biggest award of the night, Best Picture.

Best Picture Nominations Will Go To:

  • La La Land
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight
  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Hidden Figures
  • Lion

Why: The first four on our list are locks — there is no ifs, ands or buts about it. Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge each will get a nod because the film’s are that good that they deserve it, but also because both actors have turned in terrific work as directors — something the Academy loves to reward.

Hell or High Water will easily make the list because it is one of the best pictures of the year with a stunning cast telling a sensational story that could not be timelier. Two brothers rob the very banks that swindled them out of their family ranch in order to pay back loans that should be illegal. Chris Pine, Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster anchor a cast that brings this powerful tale to life.

Hidden Figures also makes this list because it too is beloved by audiences and critics. It is the film that knocked Star Wars off the top of the box office and has won the weekly box office charts now for two weeks straight. It’s a feel-good, must-see and important movie about a trio of female scientists/mathematicians that were integral to sending John Glenn into space.

Lastly, Lion will take the last spot on the nomination list because it too is a feel good, make-you-cry-in-a-good-way movie. But also because it features stunning performances by lead Dev Patel and Nicole Kidman in a heart-warming story that is sure to please.

Movies that could maybe make the cut, but sadly won’t: Deadpool, Loving, Jackie and Silence

Love to see but won’t happen: Zootopia

Best Actress Nominations Will Go To:

  • Natalie Portman, Jackie
  • Emma Stone, La La Land
  • Amy Adams, Arrival
  • Isabelle Huppert, Elle
  • Ruth Negga, Loving

Why: The top four are locks, no question. After their run at various nominations throughout awards season, there is no doubt in my mind that Portman, Stone, Adams and Huppert will hear their names called on Tuesday morning. The one spot that is still left has to go to Ruth Negga for Loving. Her performance was sublime and sensational and left us feeling some serious emotion for the story of the Loving family that needed to happen for this picture to present all the power it needed to succeed.

Best Actress candidates that could maybe make the cut, but won’t: Annette Bening for 20th Century Women, Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins

Love to see but won’t happen: Sally Field for Hello, My Name is Doris

Best Actor Nominations Will Go To:

  • Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
  • Denzel Washington, Fences
  • Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  • Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
  • Joel Edgerton, Loving

Why: Same reasoning as Best Actress, the first four are locks the fifth spot will be filled by Edgerton for his work in Loving. There is no way they nominate Negga without nominating her onscreen counterpart, Edgerton. There is no way! Plus, it is so deserving — and for a film that will be denied a deserved Best Picture nod, this is a great way to reward it.

Best Actor candidates that could maybe make the cut, but won’t: Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic, Michael Keaton for The Founder, Colin Ferrell for The Lobster and Ryan Reynolds for Deadpool

Love to see but won’t happen: Tom Hiddleston in I Saw the Light

Best Supporting Actress Nominations Will Go To:

  • Viola Davis, Fences
  • Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
  • Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  • Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
  • Nicole Kidman, Lion

Why: This is Davis’ category to lose. Paramount is marketing her as a Supporting Actress and there is no question she will be nominated and win. But, she is truly a lead actress in Fences. If Davis is in Best Actress as she should be, the winner would be Williams for Manchester by the Sea. Naomie Harris is easily a lock for Moonlight, but the remaining two spots are a bit of a mystery.

We like Spencer earning another Oscar nod for her work in Hidden Figures and another Oscar darling, Nicole Kidman to score for her role in Lion.

Best Supporting Actress candidate that could maybe make the cut, but won’t: Janelle Monae for Hidden Figures. We wish she could be nominated, but something tells us Spencer will be the only actress who scores a nod from Hidden Figures. But, don’t be shocked if Monae scores a nod instead of Kidman and two of the ladies from the awesome Hidden Figures find themselves sharing this incredible honor.

Love to see but won’t happen: Helen Mirren for Eye in the Sky

Best Supporting Actor Nominations Will Go To:

  • Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  • Dev Patel, Lion
  • Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
  • Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Why: Only our first on the list is a lock in our minds for Best Supporting Actor. Mahershala Ali was stunning in Moonlight and there is no way he doesn’t get nominated. Heck, we think he will win.

Adding to this list wasn’t easy. There were a lot of great Supporting Acting performances in 2016.

But, Bridges should hear his name called for his stunning work in Hell or High Water. Patel is likely to hear his name called for the emotional powerhouse turn he gave in Lion. The last two spots are kind of a wild card, but we think they will go to Michael Shannon for his reserved, but powerful, turn in Nocturnal Animals and Lucas Hedges deeply moving performance in Manchester by the Sea – thus giving all three major actors in that film a worthy nomination.

Love to see but won’t happen: John Goodman in 10 Cloverfield Lane