Thus far, The Movie Mensch’s Oscar Watch has given you our picks for Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. Today, our Academy Award crystal ball will be forecasting who will be taking the Kodak Theatre stage on February 28 to accept his award for Best Supporting Actor.
This is an interesting year for this category. Whereas in past year’s we’ve known the winner back in October as soon as the future nominee’s movie landed on screens. Last year, for example, when J.K. Simmons told Miles Teller that that wasn’t his tempo when Whiplash arrived in October, immediately the Oscar predicting crew knew that award would be his. The year before, when Jared Leto stole our hearts in Dallas Buyers Club, we also knew the award was just his.
In some ways, that happened this year… but in November. Many said that after seeing Creed, “just give the Oscar to Sylvester Stallone.” The thing is, none of us who said that truly felt that it would truly happen. Then, he started winning awards. Will that momentum carry through to the Oscars?
It’s hard to say. There are some serious upset contenders and since this will not be a “career” award for Stallone (he already has an Oscar for Rocky), it’s not cut and dry that the Academy will just give it to him. Any one of the other four could easily “steal” this thing.
After all, remember when the consensus was that Lauren Bacall would win for The Mirror Has Two Faces as a “she deserves it” and a “career award?” Did she win? Nope, the award went to Joliette Binoche for The English Patient.
So… who does The Movie Mensch’s Oscar Watch predict in 2016 will win Best Supporting Actor? Does Rocky rock it?
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
When you read our The Revenant review, it becomes easy to see that this publication is not necessarily on the bandwagon for that film being the best of the year. And clearly in our Best Actor Oscar Watch column, we don’t think DiCaprio deserves that Oscar that he’s going to win. Someone else does… but what we have made clear for some time now is that the best thing about The Revenant is Hardy.
Hardy plays a different kind of villain. Sure, he’s vile. His John Fitzgerald is a man of his time, who does what he believes is necessary to survive. Fitzgerald knows it’s wrong, and the audience knows that by how he tries to cover it up. But, when the truth comes walking into the fort in the form of the still-alive DiCaprio character… all hell breaks loose. A role like Fitzgerald is one tough egg to crack and Hardy did it with such skill, we could not have been more thrilled that he was also saluted with a nomination when The Revenant took in its 12 nominations. Will he win? No, but Hardy is such an outstanding talent… we see many more of these nods and perhaps a victory in his future.
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
One of those who can upset the actor The Movie Mensch believes will win is Rylance for his work in Bridge of Spies. The respected stage actor won the BAFTA award in this category and there are some who believe that he will be the one making an acceptance speech on February 28.
Bridge of Spies is an outstanding movie and everyone from Tom Hanks to Steven Spielberg gives us their best in years. But, the one who stands tall above them all is Rylance. The Academy never releases the voting after the fact, but we would love to see the tally this year. We suspect the name that placed second would be Rylance.
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Capturing utter brilliance or someone with special needs each brings unique challenges for any actor. Bale had to capture both with his turn as Michael Burry. The financial wizard who was one of a handful of Wall Street types who saw the 2008 housing crisis coming, and bet against the American economy, is beyond brilliant — and he also has Asperger’s. Bale’s performance was sublime and helped director Adam McKay and the filmmaking team bring a subject that is beyond complicated to the masses in a way that is approachable and astoundingly awesome.
Bale, a winner in this category for The Fighter, is the only actor from The Big Short to score an acting nod. Although he won’t win this year for the role… we suspect he will be heading out on the Kodak Theatre stage when the film wins Best Picture. Did we see that out loud? Hold on — we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Best Picture predictions are still coming soon!
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Upon leaving our Spotlight screening, we thought for sure that Ruffalo was destined to win his first Academy Award. The film is a truly an ensemble, but if anyone stood out in the film that also stars Michael Keaton, Rachel McAdams, Liev Schreiber, Stanley Tucci and John Slattery… it is Ruffalo.
There was some serious momentum for a Ruffalo win, but it has since waned. That largely is because of the heartbreaking and inspired performance of the man who we believe will win when his film landed in late November. Yup… it’s going to happen.
And the Oscar goes to…
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Believe the hype, Sylvester Stallone is going to win an Oscar for acting. If you had said that over a year ago, people would think you were crazy. Then, we saw his haunting, deeply emotional performance in the Rocky spin-off, Creed. It was astounding. And given what director Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan did to support, it was a turn for the ages.
This is a performance, not career-spanning award and proof of that will be when they show a scene from Creed and the Kodak Theatre audience erupts in cheers. He’s beloved for what he accomplished in Creed and proof of that will be front and center when his name is called on Academy Award night and the place goes nuts. We predict a standing ovation that last at least several minutes.